The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official

The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official

If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the present week completely uneventful in terms of big picture rate momentum, it would have been that the 10yr Treasury yield hold inside the 4.34 – 4.50 range.  Thanks to today’s friendly revision in consumer inflation expectations, the hurdle was cleared without a millimeter to spare.  With that, these business days plus the adjacent weekend days add up to 11 uneventful days for the bond market. Next week isn’t much better in terms of big ticket data, but Friday’s PCE price index is a notable exception.  

Econ Data / Events

Durable Goods

0.7 vs -0.8 f’cast
last month revised to 0.8 from 2.6

Consumer Sentiment, final

69.1 vs 67.5 f’cast

1yr inflation expectations

3.3 vs 3.5 f’cast

5yr inflation expectations

3.0 vs 3.1 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

10:07 AM Buyers held out until the safe read on consumer inflation expectations.  Now turning green with 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.474 and MBS unchanged (up an eighth from lows).

12:47 PM Steady at modestly stronger levels.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down .6bps at 4.47

02:50 PM Early close has come and gone without any major changes to mid-day prices seen in the last update.