The first quarter showed a narrowing in the market share spread between the six active underwriters, but that was before April’s economic uncertainty.

The Trump administration says it will nominate Jonathan McKernan to serve as Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance. McKernan has already been nominated as the next director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The mortgage fintech looks to transition to a model of strategic platform partnerships rather than offer its own closing services as it simplifies operations.

The declines on Thursday pushed two- to 10-year yields higher by at least 10 basis points on the day after President Donald Trump urged people to buy stocks based on the latest trade developments.

Agency mortgage backed securities have slipped about 1.1% since the start of April, trailing Treasuries and the broader US bond market.

Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain

Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly moved back to unchanged levels by the close. Most of the day’s volatility surrounded comments from a Swiss finance minister on this weekend’s US/China trade talks (in Switzerland). The movement was very small in the bigger picture, possibly reflecting the very low odds for any sort of trade resolution like yesterday’s UK/US deal.  Still, over the weekend headlines may provide hints as to where the discussions are headed, and that could be worth some volatility as the coming week begins.  A day later, CPI will provide the first big-picture assessment of April’s inflation (still exceptionally early when it comes to potential tariff-related impacts, but not too early to see some impact).

Market Movement Recap

09:59 AM Modestly weaker overnight, but moving back into positive territory now.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359

01:14 PM Mostly flat all morning.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.365

04:49 PM Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields up 0.7bps at 4.384

A glance at today’s economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events.  But what can the Fed say that we didn’t already hear from Powell on Wednesday, or 47 other times in other speeches over the past month? Maybe something, but probably nothing earth shattering.  Instead, the market is on the edge of its seat as it waits for breaking news from US/China trade talks this weekend.  Anticipation is greatly amplified by yesterday’s UK/US deal. It’s tricky business to clearly define a reaction function here (i.e. would bonds like higher tariffs due to the recession odds, or lower tariffs due to the inflation implications).  Just as the Fed can only conclude their mandates are in tension, so too is the bond market’s reaction function.  Thus, we’re left wait and see, because different investors will have different lines in the sand when it comes to which side of the function matters more.
Today’s chart isn’t necessarily related to today’s events/commentary.  Rather, it’s just a pertinent dynamic that continues playing out in the background.

Here’s something that our Fed can’t do anything about, inflation-wise: coconut prices have doubled due to extreme weather events. (More on weather and climate below.) The Federal Reserve doesn’t control U.S. property taxes either, and they’ve jumped an average of 10.4 percent between 2021 and 2023, with wide variations across the 50 largest metro areas, from just $1,091 in Birmingham to nearly $10,000 in New York City, according to a new LendingTree analysis. Homeowners now pay a median of $2,969 annually, with the sharpest increases seen in Tampa, Indianapolis, and Dallas, while Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee saw the smallest hikes. Conference admittance prices are also on the rise. “Rob, are you hearing that non-MBA groups are giving out comp passes to their events because of the expense and lack of interest?” No comment. You’re better asking the organizations yourself. But yes, in general, many are back in the cost-cutting mode again, and the first to go are non-MBA, regional, and state events. Choose wisely! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with Jeremy Potter and Paul Gigliotti from the Mortgage Innovators Conference on AI’s ultimate use-case for the industry and what it will free people up to do.)

Whether it’s today vs yesterday, or today vs the end of last week, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is just a hair lower. Today’s improvement was arguably a byproduct of trade related headlines this morning. Specifically, some comments suggested this weekend’s negotiations between the US and China in Switzerland would merely be a starting point. As has been the case for most any other recent trading day, there were plenty of other headlines that may have had an impact, but the overall movement is so small that nothing really stands out.   Looking ahead, the bond market (and thus, rates) will likely be tuning into next Tuesday’s inflation data along with any substantive developments from the weekend’s trade negotiations (which would be a tall order since they don’t involve a meeting between Xi and Trump).

The national median single-family existing-home price grew 3.4% from a year ago to $402,300, an analysis found.