Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data

Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data

Today’s big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP.  GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption.  Focusing on the latter makes Q1 look just as strong as any of the past few quarters.  PCE did the most damage for two reasons.  It was MUCH higher than expected (3.7 vs 3.4) and that implies tomorrow’s PCE data (a monthly version of today’s quarterly report) is also at risk of coming in higher than expected.  This “sneak peek” effect is only a concern once per quarter with the “advance” release of GDP.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

207k vs 214k f’cast, 212k prev

Continued Claims

1781k s 1814k f’cast

GDP

1.6 vs 2.5 f’cast, 3.4 prev

Q1 PCE Prices 

3.7 vs 3.4 f’cast

Wholesale Inventories

-0.4 v s +0.2 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM Bonds losing ground quickly after 8:30am data.  MBS down a quarter point.  10yr up almost 5bps at 4.691.

11:07 AM Weakest levels at 9:30am and pushing back slightly since then.  10yr up 6.4bps at 4.706.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

01:28 PM No reaction to 7yr Treasury auction.  10yr up 6.1bps at 4.703.  MBS down 11 ticks (.34)

03:35 PM Increasingly flat at the same old levels.  10yr up 6bps at 4.702 and MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

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Mortgage Rates Jump Up And Over 7.5% After Inflation Surprise

Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations.  One of the Fed’s favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter. Oddly enough, the quarterly comes out a day before the monthly data on the 4 days of the year where a new quarter is reported.  Today was one of those days and the quarterly data showed a big surge in inflation.  The implication is that there’s a much bigger risk that tomorrow’s monthly inflation number also proves to be higher than expected. Bonds/rates don’t like inflation to begin with, but it’s even more problematic when it has a direct bearing on Fed policy decisions.  This particular news is seen as pushing the Fed even farther into the future for its first rate cut of this cycle.  In other words, both the data, and the Fed implications were bad news for rates today. The average lender jumped immediately higher by roughly an eighth of a point.  This brings the top tier conventional 30yr rate index over 7.5% for the first time since November 13th.  Tomorrow could add insult to injury, but it’s also worth noting that markets are expecting worse news now, so if it’s only a little worse, the injury might not be that bad.

Quarterly PCE Data Causing Concern Over Tomorrow’s Monthly Numbers

It’s a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement.  At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast.  But the devil is in the details–specifically, the details inside the quarterly GDP data.  GDP will be reported 3 times for Q1.  Today was the first of those and as such, the PCE price data component offers a bit of a sneak peek at tomorrow’s PCE inflation data. 
GDP is not a hugely important report, but PCE inflation is.  With all that in mind, the PCE component in today’s data was 3.7 vs 3.4.  In a world where a 0.1 beat/miss can cause massive volatility for the bond market, that’s a huge beat.  Bonds will likely be feeling extra defensive until and unless tomorrow’s Core PCE number tells a slightly less dramatic story.
Stocks haven’t loved the data either, due to the implications for the Fed’s rate outlook.  The following isn’t the pattern normally associated with stocks and bonds, but it is prevalent at times when the market is actively refining its outlook for the Fed Funds Rate.

In the slightly bigger picture, this morning’s weakness constitutes the first significant break above the 4.65 level and it breathes a bit more life into the uptrend that had dominated the month of April (the one that looked to be defeated by the 4.65 ceiling.