Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last

For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was significantly more narrow than almost any other day in more than a month.  By the time we consider the overall range of the past 3 days, there aren’t many comparable examples.  The closest candidates tend to fall at the end of the month and to be followed by a quick return to prevailing patterns of volume and volatility.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

198 vs 196 f’cast, 191 prev

Q4 final GDP

2.6 vs 2.7 f’cast, 2.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:59 AM Flat start despite some back and forth overnight.  Slightly weaker after data, but not necessarily because of it.  10y up 2.3bps at 3.589.  MBS down an eighth.

01:32 PM Sideways to slightly stronger.  10yr down 1.5bps at 3.551.  MBS up 1 tick (0.03).

03:27 PM modest additional gains in Treasuries heading into the afternoon.  10yr down 2bps at 3.547.  MBS still flat at same levels as the last update.