Very Small Token Pull-Back

Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yields were technically a few bps higher thus preserving the phenomenon of rally momentum being limited to 48-hour windows since the start of the Iran war. Despite a barrage of war-related headlines, there was remarkably light volatility in oil prices. Markets seem to be waiting on truly momentous developments (such as a major resumption of hostilities or a confirmed/permanent ceasefire). In the meantime, stocks and bonds both did their own thing today without any of the recently typical correlation to oil prices.

Econ Data / Events

Import prices mm (Mar)

0.8% vs 2% f’cast, 1.3% prev

NY Fed Manufacturing (Apr)

11.00 vs -0.5 f’cast, -0.20 prev

NAHB Builder Confidence

34 vs 37 f’cast, 38 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:46 AM Modestly weaker overnight, partly following oil.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.268

12:55 PM Weaker into the noon hour, but stabilizing now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.284

02:34 PM little-changed since last update. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.281