Posted To: MBS CommentarySideways to Slightly Weaker After Another Long-Term High 10yr yields hit a 5-month high early in the overnight session and then managed to claw their way back to modestly stronger levels by the start of domestic trading. Amid a dearth of data and actionable headlines, bonds were left to “trade it out.” That seemed to go fairly well at first, but yields adjusted back toward the highs of the day after the 20yr bond auction at 1pm ET. Perhaps the more relevant detail is that 10yr yields were never able to make it below 1.62%, even at their best. 1.62% had been a ceiling 3 days ago before becoming a floor yesterday afternoon. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Market Movement Recap 08:39 AM Weaker to start the overnight session with yields hitting multi-month highs of…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since. The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and press conference with Fed Chair Powell) served as a jumping-off point for additional volatility and upward momentum. In contrast, October has generally seen rates rise at a more gradual pace. On several occasions, they’ve merely held almost perfectly in line with the previous day’s levels. Today is just such a day! There were no notable motivations for the underlying bond market today (bonds dictate interest rates). As such, today’s sideways momentum makes sense. That said, it’s worth mentioning that there are different versions of “sideways” when it comes to the financial market. Today’s version was best described as “sideways to slightly weaker…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MBS CommentaryToday has the dubious distinction of being exactly 2 weeks before the Fed announcement (the one that’s likely to contain the official tapering announcement). While tapering seems like a bad thing for rates, the timing is important. The most relevant precedent (2013/2014) suggests that anticipation of tapering is actually what hurts the bond market while tapering itself coincides with rates topping out and beginning to decline. The only question for now is whether the bond market approaches Fed day in a sideways range or in an upwardly-sloped trend channel. There’s more of a case to be made for the trend channel recently (in fact, that’s really the only takeaway in the chart below). A strong ceiling bounce near current levels could change the outlook, but bonds would need to rally…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: Pipeline PressSomeone here in San Diego asked an audience, “Who out there misses their Blackberry?” and many raised their hands. Technology… an interesting thing. How about the ability to look at this “Star Wars House” in Florida: $11.5 million, not even on the water, but page down a few times in the photos . Many of the technology changes announced or advanced here in San Diego are focused on reducing the friction between application and funding. Part of that is the appraisal process , and acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency Sandra Thompson announced a change: allowing banks and mortgage lenders to use desktop appraisals in lieu of in-person home valuations . (The change makes permanent a measure that Fannie and Freddie instituted during the pandemic.) In…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MND NewsWireThe volume of applications for mortgages to purchase newly constructed homes plunged in September, falling 16.2 percent from the September 2020 level according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Builder Application Survey (BAS.) Compared to August the volume of applications was down 4.0 percent. These changes are not seasonally adjusted. Based on the volume of applications and on assumptions regarding market coverage and other data, MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 843,000 units in September, a 3.5 percent decline from the August pace of 874,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, an estimated 66,000 newly constructed homes were sold during the month, down 7.0 percent from the estimate of 71,000 sales in August. “New home…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.