Dr. Mark Calabria takes on the additional role of chief statistician of the United States; retired Ally Bank executive Diane Morais has joined First Citizens Bancshares’ board of directors; MainStreet Bank has promoted Alex Vari to chief financial officer; and more in this week’s banking news roundup.

A federal judge in Texas dismissed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s medical debt rule and prohibited states from passing their own laws prohibiting medical debt on credit reports.

Rising home prices and softening sales offer a mixed view of a market that some say is shifting to favor buyers.

The share of economists expecting a September rate reduction grew in the July Wolters Kluwer survey, but the October or later percentage also increased.

While refinances are behind the latest increases, the pace of purchase activity may be a stronger indicator of where the housing market sits.

Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact

Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada.  Bonds view such news as a double edged sword, but also drifted into weaker and weaker territory as the day progressed. Given that yields remained inside the week’s range, we’re more inclined to view this as an acceptable sideways drift ahead of big ticket data event: Tuesday’s CPI report. It goes without saying that some of the market will have to be surprised by the outcome which either will or will not show that tariffs have begun impacted the data in a significant way. The farther from forecast, the larger the surprise and the potential bond market reaction. In that light, Friday’s weakness could be viewed as a move to the sidelines ahead of the forthcoming revelations. 

Market Movement Recap

09:50 AM Steadily weaker overnight with MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.398

11:55 AM Mostly sideways after  early weakness.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 6bps at 4.405

03:00 PM MBS are down 6-7 ticks (.19-.22) depending on the moment and 10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.424.

In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-slated 25%). Exemptions for USMCA goods and energy/fertilizer are probable, but TBD. And of course, it’s also possible the deal will change again before August 1st. Nonetheless, when it comes to a top tier trading partner, any durable increase in tariffs is a concern for the bond market from an inflation standpoint. Both stocks and bonds lost ground overnight with 10yr yields pushing up toward (but not over) this week’s highs. 

Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin Bran. M&A is not confined to lenders: Imagine my surprise when I learned that Michigan’s WK Kellogg Co. is set to be acquired by the Italian candymaker behind Ferrero Rocher in a nearly $3 billion deal. Sometimes it is hard to track who’s doing what, and how it impacts us, which is why STRATMOR’s latest write up is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” Tracking locks is important: the locks that Optimal Blue tracks increased 2 percent in June. Non-QM locks account for an increasing percentage of total volume, rising over 7 percent during the month. “The steady rise in this category reflects the industry’s growing focus on flexibility and meeting borrowers where they are.” According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances decreased 21 percent week over week and increased 17 percent in June; the purchase index decreased 19% week over week and decreased 2% for June as a whole. June 2025 funded mortgage volume increased 15% YoY. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s has an interview with National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s Josh Silver on ending redlining through a community-centered reform of the Community Reinvestment Act.)

Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as “broadly sideways,” and while that’s still very true in the bigger picture, words like “up” and “higher” might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty approach, today’s rates are the highest of the week and the highest since June 24th.  For the optimists (and, in our view, the pragmatists), today’s rates are virtually identical to those seen on Tuesday.  Specifically, our 30yr fixed rate index is only 0.01% higher today–the smallest possible change. Motivation for movement in rates and in the underlying bond market was in short supply this week.  It would make more sense to view it as sort of hangover from last week’s party (multi-month lows last Tuesday) followed by a wake up call at the end of last week from the stronger-than-expected jobs report. Bonds (which drive rates) care about big-ticket economic data and the jobs report is one of the biggest tickets. If there’s a worthy competitor at the moment, it’s next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)–an inflation report that may or may not show the onset of tariff-driven inflation. Why would that matter?  First off, bonds simply don’t like inflation and rates will generally be moving higher if inflation is moving higher. Additionally, the prospect of tariff-driven inflation is preventing the Federal Reserve from initiating rate cuts that would otherwise be justified by the current landscape of econ data and monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said that criticisms of the Fed’s balance sheet and calls to return to a scarce reserves system are misinformed, saying that much of the central bank’s balance sheet is the result of activities outside the Fed’s control.