MBS live will be operating in “holiday light” mode today.   The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will only be written in the event of extra large bond market movement.  How would that be defined?  It’s fairly simple in this case: unless yields are breaking out side of this week’s trading range, nothing significant is happening. Even then, a range breakout on a day like today could easily be a byproduct of light
Yes, 3.842 would be the better part of a 20bp sell-off, and that might seem like a big move, but I’m still telling you that would be meaningless in the bigger picture.  On Thanksgiving week, we have to discount the pace of Wednesday’s rally, and we would also discount the pace of a similarly-sized sell-off.  After all, if last week closed at 3.833 and we’ve been saying all week to ignore these 3.5 trading days, then ending at 3.842 wouldn’t mean much.  Moreover, even if this were a full-fledged trading week, 3.842 would still only be at the top of the white rectangle and the more you back away from the chart, the smaller and smaller it looks.