Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change

Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing ground modestly into the 9am hour as markets mis-read headlines regarding new peace proposals submitted by Iran. But just before 10am, similar headlines resurfaced including the claim that Iran’s new proposal made concessions regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations. This accounted for a swift move into positive territory that was only partially reversed after Trump said he wasn’t satisfied with the latest proposal despite acknowledging progress in the peace talks. The net effect is a bond market that is roughly unchanged heading into the 3pm CME close. As has been the case, any major progress toward peace over the weekend (or any major escalation) could result in trading levels being drastically different on Monday morning.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr)

46.4 vs 49 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

52.7 vs 53 f’cast, 52.7 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Apr)

84.6 vs 80 f’cast, 78.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:00 AM Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.39

10:05 AM Rallying after ISM data.  MBS back near unchanged levels and 10yr down half a bp at 4.364

10:54 AM Giving up roughly half the gains now. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr just a hair over unchanged at 4.373

02:29 PM Flat in the PM hours so far. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.379

Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-related headlines began to heat up. The most significant developments involve reports of a new peace proposal from Iran–one that potentially offers more concessions on nuclear aspirations. News is thin so far, but oil prices are moving lower and bond yields are following with 10s moving from 4.40 to under 4.35 in fairly short order. ISM Manufacturing came in weaker around the same time and contributed to the move.

While it’s a nice move in the short term, yields remain elevated relative to the recent range. Still, there’s some “double top” potential starting to take shape in the chart.

The use of down payment assistance has risen sharply over the past year and a half, especially among FHA borrowers. Participation has jumped from 7.5 percent at the start of 2025 to over 21 percent recently, near the highest levels in years, as high home prices and borrowing costs push more buyers to seek help. Despite this increase, borrowers using DPA look very similar to those who don’t in terms of credit scores, debt levels, and loan sizes, indicating the program is being used broadly rather than just by riskier borrowers. Performance differences are modest but consistent: DPA borrowers tend to have slightly higher rates of serious delinquency and loan buyouts over time, though their prepayment behavior is largely similar. In the mortgage market, these borrowers are concentrated in higher-coupon Ginnie Mae pools, meaning the impact is more about where the risk sits in the market rather than a major shift in overall credit quality. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview conducted by Movement Mortgage’s Lyra Waggoner of the “Chrismen” (Rob and Robbie) on a listener mailbag list of topics. Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services

Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%.  The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated versus last week.  Today’s resilience is most easily attributed to a slew of headlines suggesting that peace negotiations are at least being attempted by The U.S. and Iran. Additional progress toward a resolution (or lack thereof) is the most likely source of volatility for rates next week, but markets have also shown some willingness to react to big-ticket economic data (such as next Friday’s jobs report). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Home affordability declined on a monthly basis across loan types and racial demographics, but improved from a year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

The partnership was designed to support the growth of Redwood’s Sequoia platform and give Castlelake purchasing power for fully documented loans.

The latest study from LodeStar found the ratio of average closing cost to home sales price in several states, led by Delaware, well above the national average.

A federal judge harshly criticized the settlement of a civil suit between the Department of Justice and a Texas land developer.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.4% on April 29 — its highest level since late March — as investor anxiety mounted.

Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely

Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together.  The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a “blow-off top” (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they’d gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn’t an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn’t sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn’t necessarily drive any of the movement, but with PCE falling right in line with expectations, it didn’t get in the way. Perhaps more impressive is that bonds didn’t see any selling pressure from the lowest jobless claims reading in more than 3 years.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Apr)/18

1,785K vs 1820K f’cast, 1821K prev

Core PCE (m/m) (Mar)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.4% prev

Core PCE (y/y) (Mar)

3.2% vs 3.2% f’cast, 3% prev

Core PCE Prices QoQQ1

4.3% vs 4.1% f’cast, 2.7% prev

Employment costsQ1

0.9% vs 0.8% f’cast, 0.7% prev

GDPQ1

2.0% vs 2.3% f’cast, 0.5% prev

Jobless Claims (Apr)/25

189K vs 215K f’cast, 214K prev

PCE (y/y) (Mar)

3.5% vs 3.5% f’cast, 2.8% prev

PCE prices (m/m) (Mar)

0.7% vs 0.7% f’cast, 0.4% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:31 AM slightly stronger overnight and no immediate reaction to boatload of econ data. MBS up 7 ticks and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.402

12:05 PM Fairly flat since the open. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4bps at 4.39

03:21 PM Near best levels. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.383