MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI

MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI

Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headlines to inspire bond market momentum for better or worse.  The result is unsurprising if you ask Treasuries: 10yr yields are drifting very close to unchanged on the day after early selling and a late morning bounce.  If there’s a development that’s worth mentioning, it would be the MBS outperformance.  Case in point, 6.0 UMBS are ending the day in line with Friday’s 11am levels while 10yr yields are more than 4bps higher versus the same baseline.  As interesting as that may be, all bets are off after 8:30am tomorrow (CPI).

Market Movement Recap

09:44 AM MBS down almost a quarter point.  10yr up 4bps at 4.686.

12:31 PM Bouncing back into the noon hour.  MBS roughly unchanged.  10yr up only 0.2bps at 4.648.

03:29 PM MBS at best levels, up almost 3/4ths.  10yr down 1bp at 4.636.

Mortgage Rates Start Higher But Recover Ahead of Key Inflation Report

Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks.  The underlying bond market had been losing ground steadily since last Thursday and there was some follow-through to that negative momentum early today.  Weaker bonds = higher rates, all other things being equal. But bonds recovered from 10am through the end of the day and the specific bonds that underlie mortgage rates did even better than their Treasury benchmarks.  This allowed almost every lender to issue updated, improved pricing in the afternoon.  With that, lenders were fairly close to the rate offerings seen on Friday. All bets are off as far as tomorrow is concerned.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30am ET and it has the power to send rates sharply higher or lower depending on the outcome.  CPI is the most important inflation report for the bond market and one of the only pieces of economic data that can rival the big jobs report when it comes to market movement potential.  The key word here is “potential.”  CPI can always thread the needle and garner a mixed response in the market, but if it’s significantly higher or lower than expected, rates will be on the move.

All Eyes on CPI (Part 2)

Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market’s willingness to do anything new after the previous week’s big rally.  That said, the mere act of holding inside a relatively narrow range helps to confirm the previous week’s rally was more than some weird byproduct of oversold momentum and corrective short-covering (even though those things helped make the rally bigger).  This week’s focus remains squarely on Tuesday’s CPI release as the week’s only super heavy hitter on the econ data front.  Retail sales data will play a strong supporting role the following day.  Monday’s off to a weaker start without any obvious justification.
There’s a fairly big drop expected at the headline CPI level (0.1 vs 0.4) previously, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.3%.  The spillover of the big shift in fuel prices is a bit of a wild card, as is the ongoing disinflation of rental prices.

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