Lenders are refinancing borrowers who took out intermediate ARMs 3, 5, or 7 years ago and whose rates have gone up. Some here in Las Vegas, walking around humming this tune while at the ICE and Lender Toolkit event, will say that adjustable-rate mortgages are a gamble that paid off from 1982 through 2021 but not now. Las Vegas is packed, and yesterday I asked the kid working behind the counter at McDonalds if the Shamrock Shakes were made with fresh shamrocks. He left to go ask the manager. Yikes. Mickey D’s employees make $14-17 an hour, certainly under the area’s median income. I mention this because 1,200 miles to the north, in Vancouver, BC, for a lesson in affordable housing, the Squamish First Nation has reserve land in the heart of Vancouver and is using its authority to build large, dense, affordable urban housing via an 11-tower, 6,000-apartment development over 10 acres of land. Many NIMBYs in the beachfront neighborhood next to the reserve are upset about the development. And that’s not all: The Musqueam, Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh Nations are planning a 12-tower project on the west side. (Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Today’s has an interview with Gateway First Bank’s Steven Plaisance on priorities for mortgage executives and the importance of advocacy groups.

Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon.  In the slightly bigger picture rates have moved up roughly a quarter of a percent in just over a week and that’s a relatively quick move. The last time rates rose a quarter of a point in short order was at the beginning of February.  The entire jump happened in a single day following the release of much stronger jobs data.  It was also followed by additional momentum thanks to inflation data in the following week. The current move is also data driven with two inflation reports coming in hotter than expected last week.  The average lender is now very close to their highest levels in several months, which seems fitting considering the arrival of the next Fed announcement on Wednesday. We already know the Fed will not be cutting rates.  We don’t know how they’ll adjust their rate outlook for the rest of the year.  The last update (on December 13th) was very friendly.  This update should be less so.  If the Fed’s shift in “friendliness” matches market expectations, we may not get too much volatility, but considering the circumstances, volatility is a distinct risk.  

Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc.  Technical levels don’t predict the future, but they can provide context for trends.  In some cases, they can serve as cues for the next trend.  For instance, if a key level is broken, it can be a cue for traders continue pushing in the direction of the breakout or a cue for traders to push back in the other direction.  The bullish or bearish outcome often comes down to a key event or piece of data.  With all of that in mind, 10yr yields are once again at their 2024 ceiling of 4.32%.  Wednesday’s Fed announcement (and dot plot) is likely to determine if 4.32 ends up being reinforced as a ceiling or blamed as a technical trigger for additional selling.

Bond investors who were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates this week are painfully surrendering to a higher-for-longer reality and a murky path forward for the market.

An unnamed hacker in December “potentially removed” sensitive consumer data including Social Security numbers from the wholesale lender.

Listings of existing homes rose 12% in February compared with a year earlier, and one in five of them are seeing price cuts, according to Zillow Group Inc.

While the GSE searches for a permanent successor, Hutchins will also serve concurrently in his role as president following Michael Devito’s departure on March 15.

Combining the two property preservation firms brings specialized technology and capabilities that Five Brothers has to MCS and broadens the operations of both.

The pending agreement won’t significantly impact commissions payments themselves, attorneys for the association said.

The increase in production revenues was canceled out by higher expenses, a sign that too much capacity remains in the system, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.