Last year, the Raleigh, N.C.-based Integrated called off a deal to sell itself to MVB Financial after bank stocks took a hit in the aftermath of the regional bank failures. Capital hopes to expand its government-guaranteed lending with the transaction.

The pending end of the program comes as over half of U.S. states have already ceased accepting new applicants for federal aid aimed to help struggling households with mortgage payments.

But the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is still near 7%, and that remains the overhang on the housing market, Freddie Mac said.

Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day

Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of the day, but rose several bps after that.  The initial gains were driven mainly be economic data (Chicago PMI and Consumer Inflation Expectations), but the month-end trading environment is always a wild card on month-end days.  If month-end buying was a factor, it would make sense to see some pull back when monthly closing levels were marked at 1pm ET.  That’s exactly what we saw.  Fortunately, it wasn’t a big deal for bonds or mortgage lenders. In fact, the entire week was distinctly lacking in volatility. Next week is a different animal thanks to big ticket econ data on 4 out of 5 days.

Econ Data / Events

Q4 Final GDP

3.4 vs 3.2 f’cast, 4.9 prev
PCE prices 2.0 vs 2.1 f’cast
Final sales 3.9 vs 3.5 f’cast

Jobless Claims

210k vs 215k f’cast, 212k prev

Continued Claims

1819k vs 1807k prev

Chicago PMI

41.4 vs 46.0 f’cast, 44.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:44 AM Two way trading after 8:30am data, and now a decent response to Chicago PMI.  10yr up 2bps at 4.208.  MBS down an eighth. 

12:38 PM Solid gains into the noon hour.  10yr nearly unchanged at 4.192.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

01:33 PM Well off the highs in after hours trading.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).  10yr up 1.8bps at 4.206.

Unfortunately, we don’t have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it’s safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks in the history of mortgage rates.  Our daily rate index never moved more than 0.01 and it remained in a 0.01 range. Today’s average rate was right in line with yesterday’s even though the bond market (the thing that normally dictates rates) suggested some movement.  Despite the suggestion, it’s not a huge surprise to see another flat day given the early close in financial markets and the full closure tomorrow.  Lenders often adopt less nimble pricing strategies on these holiday weeks–only making noticeable moves when the market really forces their hands. Next week continues to be a different story–at least in terms of what’s possible.  In other words, this week was never likely to offer much excitement.  Next week has infinitely more potential to do so depending on the outcome of the economic reports–especially Friday’s jobs report. 

Here’s a tip of the day for anyone manning a conference booth: instead of a pen, or mouse pad, how about a locally made treat? Hats off to Aimee, Bobby, and Mark from Byte Software who earlier this week at the TMC event had chocolate-covered Oreos from a local bakery. Technology was a big topic at TMC… Technology thoughts from 50 years ago? Here you go. (There’s definitely a school of thought which believes that the iPhone changed tech overnight. Almost 20 years later, nothing else has come close.) Vendor news seems to be at every conference, and capital markets staff are certainly big users of tech. At the TMC enclave secondary marketing folks often gravitate toward each other, “shooting the breeze” about odds and ends. For the most part, no one thinks they earn a living by making predictions, instead providing accurate information to other managers and owners, and acting as an advisor about loan profitability, leakage, concessions, and margins. Capital markets staff are also involved in LO and executive recruiting efforts, and in developing strong product offerings to help the company be successful. (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Stavvy. Stavvy offers a flexible and fully customizable loss mitigation solution. Servicers can easily adapt to regulatory updates and market conditions, providing a seamless, customer-centric digital experience. Today’s has an interview with AmeriCatalyst’s Toni Moss about the Extreme Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit on April 18-19, in Washington, DC.)

While the future can’t ever be known, this week’s base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and bigger-ticket data next week.  Today fits perfectly into that narrative, and in a bond-friendly way to boot.  Yields began near yesterday’s highs, but rallied all morning with help from econ data. It was Chicago PMI at 9:45am and Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10am that teamed up to the best effect, helping facilitate a drop from 4.22+ to just under the 4.19% technical level.  Small moves, to be sure, but ending the week at 2 week lows is a solid outcome.

The report seeks to help banks “disrupt rapidly evolving AI-driven fraud,” according to Treasury’s Nellie Liang. The report found banks have difficulties accounting for AI risks.

The lender accused its former leader of compromising its Fannie Mae seller/servicer number to prevent it from delivering loans.

Audited financials, proof of fidelity bonds and errors and omissions insurance must be provided on Ginnie Mae Central after May 13.