Now that it’s essentially over, it’s easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction.  In fact, even before it began, last Friday’s lock/float guidance contained a very rare level of conviction for MBS Live when it comes to commenting on the future, saying “there’s likely to be a correction/consolidation ahead of CPI data the following week.”  Weakness was marginally exacerbated by the Treasury auction cycle and it seems we’ve seen some relief as supply moves to the rearview (corporate bond issuance was a bigger-than-expected factor as well with the week generating more than $45bln in new offerings vs expectations for 35-40 bln).  From here, there’s much less of a directional bias in the week ahead. Economic data stands the best chance to set the tone.

The lender and servicer saw origination volume jump to $6.5 billion as of June 30, up from $3.9 billion the previous quarter.

The publicly traded firm is also shoring up its sluggish stock and ramping up marketing efforts.

Moderating interest rates in the first quarter led to changing fortunes from 2022 and 2023, a Transunion report said.

Soaring insurance costs may add to escrowed funds that servicers can earn money on in some cases, but higher premiums also could lead to affordability issues.

The move aims to end a conflict between service-related disability benefits and rental assistance. HUD and the Treasury also are looking at tax credit impacts.

Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal

Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, but also almost always a forgettable ingredient in the recipe for serious bond market movement.  There are scattered exceptions to that rule and today was a reminder.  Despite a mere 233k vs 240k beat, the bond market reacted the data as if it were one of the 4-5 top tier economic reports that account for the biggest average reactions. In seeking to reconcile that, we can consider the defensiveness priced into the market as a result of last week’s labor market data.  With today’s claims, we have the 2nd report of the week suggesting the labor market outlook may not be bleak enough to warrant much panic. In addition to all of the above data-related considerations, it has also been a busy week for corporate bond issuance which has added further pressure at times.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

233k vs 240k f’cast, 250k prev

Continued Claims

1875k vs 1870k f’cast, 1869k prev

Market Movement Recap

10:31 AM Slightly stronger overnight, then sharply weaker after jobless claims data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5bps at 3.999

01:16 PM Slightly into the 30yr bond auction, but now bouncing back with MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 3.998. 

02:42 PM Weakest levels just after 2pm and another bounce.  MBS and Treasuries right in line with previous update.

The Treasury, CFPB and Federal Trade Commission are joining forces to warn consumers about predatory practices in financing solar energy panels.

Mr. Cooper’s PII leak late last year had a significant impact on its customers. Money has been stolen, unauthorized attempts to open credit cards occurred and extensive spam campaigns have followed, a filing claims.

Vice President Kamala Harris recruited Minnesota’s governor to join the Democratic presidential ticket. He’s been a longtime advocate for affordable housing and rental protections.