Among the big four title companies, the top two reported fewer open orders year-over-year in the second quarter, while the other two gained business.

Uneventful Summertime Monday

Monday started slow and stayed slow throughout.  MBS held well within the narrowed intraday trading range in nearly a month in addition to hitting the 3pm bell at exactly the same levels seen at 8am. There were no relevant economic reports or market movers.  Treasury volumes were right in line with the lowest levels of any day in the past month.

Econ Data / Events

Leading Indicators

-0.6 vs -0.3 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:17 AM Stronger overnight the weaker at 9am with EU bond auctions.  10yr up half a bp at 3.885. MBS down 1 tick (.03).

01:16 PM Sideways near best levels.  MBS up 1 tick (.03).  10yr down 2.2bps at 3.86

After the intense volatility seen earlier in August, the average change for mortgage rates on any given day has been shrinking. Last week was a mere shadow of the former week which, in turn, was nowhere close to the week before that. If Monday is any indication, the present week will attempt to keep that trend going.  The average lender offered slightly lower rates compared to Friday’s latest levels, but that has just as much to do with bond market strength on Friday (which wasn’t early enough or big enough to result in widespread rate improvements. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates continue near the 6.5% mark.  In terms of scheduled events, there are no major volatility risks until the end of the week.

A quick note for anyone coming to the California MBA’s Western Secondary via LAX and taking a ride share to the venue: grab the lime green shuttle bus and don’t even try to request a ride until you reach the pick-up area. At roughly 700, the attendance of the WS, 26 miles across the sea from Santa Catalina, is well above last year’s. Several of the sessions discuss economics, and interest rates of course, despite everyone’s inability to predict them accurately and with consistency. There’s the old story about the economist with his head in the oven and his feet in the freezer and saying “on average” he felt great. Some ask, “Why cut interest rates? Does the U.S. economy need stimulation?” Others point to unemployment creeping up, inflation coming down, and certain economic measures slightly worsening. Last week’s podcast interview with the MBA’s Chief Economist, Dr. Fratantoni, is definitely worth a listen. Time will tell. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a Warranty, eliminating repurchase worries. Hear an interview with Broker First Funding’s Carla Meyers on the inner workings of mortgage company marketing departments.) Lender and Broker Software, Services, and Products Assumable mortgages are making a resurgence in today’s market conditions – and two new fee changes at the federal level create an unexpected opportunity for servicers. In a new blog, the experts at ICE Mortgage Technology detail what’s changing with those fees and the FHA and VA regulatory requirements that servicing teams must be ready to meet. The blog also explores how servicers can find a competitive edge if they are prepared to service assumable mortgages. Read the new blog here to see how you can meet the moment and make the most of these recent fee changes.

In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant–and sometimes substantial–market mover.  That impulse has faded in recent years amid the Fed’s aggressive transparency efforts, but exceptions can’t be ruled out depending on the circumstances.  This year’s installment raises some questions.  In the days following Powell’s last appearance, the bond market briefly traded rate cut probabilities into the 75bp range for the September Fed meeting before rapidly shifting back to a 25bp expectation.

We’ve had compelling data on both sides of the argument with distinct differences between inflation and labor market indicators.  With the first rate cut seen as a virtual certainty next month, markets still expect more overt foreshadowing from Powell.  The only question is whether or not traders will be disappointed when Powell keeps his options open this Friday.  After all, there’s another jobs report and CPI left to come before he needs to decide.

The changes laid out in the agreement are technical, revolving around paperwork consumers complete at the beginning of the buying or selling process, and they add new wrinkles to an already complicated undertaking.

Vice President Kamala Harris outlined a raft of populist economic proposals in her first major economic speech since securing the Democratic presidential nomination, including some aimed at lowering housing costs and boosting supply.

The FHA share of new-home loan applications also increased to a new record high, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

A sizable decline in the South may have reflected the impact of Hurricane Beryl.

Loandepot and Mr. Cooper said they’ve spent tens of millions of dollars this year following recent, major hacks.