Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms of 10yr yields. By the 3pm CME close, yields were up less than 4bps on the day and still well inside the prevailing consolidation range. There’s been a bit more weakness since then owing to new headlines indicating that neither Iran nor JD Vance are attending Wednesday’s planned talks in Pakistan. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

54.75K vs — f’cast, 39K prev

Retail Sales (Mar)

1.7% vs 1.4% f’cast, 0.6% prev

Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)

0.7% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.5% prev

Pending Home Sales (Mar)

1.5% vs 0.1% f’cast, 1.8% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:32 AM Modestly weaker after weekly ADP data. No reaction to Retail Sales. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.268

09:44 AM 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.275.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16).

10:51 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.296

02:44 PM Sideways since previous update. MBS still down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.4bps at 4.295