Bonds End at Strongest Levels

Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today’s momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report. 

Econ Data / Events

NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)

95.3 vs 96.0 f’cast, 95.9 prev

ADP Employment Change Weekly

29K vs — f’cast, 35.75K prev

Trade Gap (Apr)

-55.90B vs $-56.1B f’cast, $-60.3B prev

Market Movement Recap

08:23 AM A hair stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.543

01:38 PM MBS up 2 ticks and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.528

04:15 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.52