Here in New York, as over a thousand of us head to airports (hopefully avoiding manholes… tragic), the mood has been pragmatic. Not overly optimistic, not somber, just realistic. No one is arguing that the war hasn’t driven up worldwide oil prices, impacting inflation and borrower psychology, impacting lending. The Mortgage Bankers Association now predicts a Federal Reserve rate hike to arrive in 2027, so any lenders or originators hoping for lower rates, well… At this point there isn’t a lot of reason for rates to drop unless higher oil prices slow the economy further. We knew that a second Trump Administration would impact the economy and regulatory environment, and along those lines… SCOTUS Justice Kennedy built a constitutional protection into fair lending disparate impact doctrine for mortgage lenders in a 2015 case and then accidentally ensured it would never work. Read attorney Brian Levy’s latest Mortgage Musing to find out about fair lending compliance in the second Trump term and sign up for free on Substack to get Levy’s Musings delivered directly to your email box. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by TransUnion. Discover how data-driven mortgage intelligence is helping lenders identify in-market borrowers, strengthen portfolio performance, personalize outreach, retain customers, and drive smarter growth in an increasingly competitive housing market. Today’s has an interview with LendingTree’s Rob Bhatt on how home insurance costs are rising far faster than both inflation and household income growth nationwide.)