Today celebrates Mexico’s victory over France in the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862. (In this country, Hispanic home ownership rates continue toward 10 million, which includes, of course, Mexicans. In Mexico itself, mortgage rates are north of 10 percent and homeownership is less than 60 percent.) Returning to the note about today, it was a relatively minor battle (and the French reclaimed Puebla a year later) but a symbolic one because a small Mexican army defeated a larger occupying force. By 1867, Mexican troops had driven France from the country. Cinco de Mayo is not Mexico’s Independence Day (September 16) which commemorates the Grito de Dolores, a priest’s ringing of a church bell in the town of Dolores in 1810 that triggered Mexico’s War of Independence from Spain. Mexico is just one of twenty Hispanic countries, and lenders know that the rise in overall Hispanic home ownership in recent years played out in first-time home buyer numbers and many have “diversity” departments that encompass many lending facets including minority homeownership. Viva la Raza! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with TD Bank’s Scott Lindner on how to better educate potential homebuyers on financial readiness and engender loyalty that will lead to repeat business.)

Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage rates, but in today’s case, the damage was minimal. One thing to keep in mind is that mortgage rates don’t change in real time with the market. Lenders set rates once in the morning and only change them when the bond market experiences a certain threshold of volatility. A small handful of lenders met that threshold and ended up raising rates this afternoon, but the average lender remained right in line with Friday. The implication is that if the bond market were to start tomorrow exactly where it’s ending today, most lenders would be in a position to set tomorrow’s rates slightly higher. This is purely hypothetical, however as there’s no way to know which direction bonds will move overnight.

Selling Spree Continues, But Gently

Bonds were focused on this morning’s ISM Services Index with some traders waiting to see more evidence of economic fallout from tariff-related uncertainty. Instead, the index moved slightly higher and was rather uneventful by the time all sub-components were considered.  Not enough fuel there for bond bulls, so the bears kept the 3 day selling spree going, ultimately getting 10yr yields back over the 4.34 technical level that got so much play time in March. 

Econ Data / Events

ISM Services

51.6 vs 50.6 f’cast, 50.8 prev

ISM Prices

65.1 vs 60.9 prev

ISM Employment 

49.0 vs 46.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:36 AM stronger overnight, but modestly weaker in early trading.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.324

10:29 AM Additional weakness after ISM data.  10yr up 3.7bps at 4.346.  MBS down an eighth of a point. 

11:12 AM Bouncing back a bit.  MBS down only 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.329

01:39 PM 10yr up 5.5bps at 4.366 and MBS down nearly a quarter point.

03:17 PM Nice little bounce off the weakest levels.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.338

The ISM Services PMI is this morning’s key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing data wasn’t strong, but it wasn’t nearly as weak as traders were prepared to see. Today’s services PMI is in the same vein–coming in higher than expected at the headline level and offering no relief on prices. The result is a modest extension of the selling pressure seen over the past few days. Yields are now back at the top of the March range. As the week continues, the Treasury auction cycle and Fed announcement are the remaining key events.

Atlantic Trust Mortgage was recently dealt another legal blow after a federal judge in Michigan refused to dismiss UWM’s All-In lawsuit against the brokerage.

President Donald Trump’s proposed budget would nix funding for Community Development Financial Institutions in minority heavy areas while expanding it for rural areas.

The tool’s launch comes as various sources report growth in both serious borrower delinquencies and foreclosure activity over the first few months of 2025.

Even though Motto Mortgage has 8% fewer open offices than a year ago, executives touted franchise renewals with owners committing to another seven years.

The administration is pitching a $26.7 billion reduction to the regulator’s funding for rental assistance, public housing and elderly and disability housing.

Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way

Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with economic data in wake of the tariff announcement in early April, which was logical given the headline-drive volatility and uncertainty. 2 weeks ago, the connection looked to be returning.  Now over the past 2 days, it’s back with a vengeance.  It’s not that any of the data has been stunningly strong, but it’s been much better than what some market participants were prepared to see.  Friday’s jobs report is the 2nd time in 2 days where traders have been able (or forced?) to reconcile their more dire fears with a less dire reality. Translation: higher stocks, higher yields.  More big ticket data on the way on Monday…

Econ Data / Events

Nonfarm Payrolls

177k vs 130k f’cast, 185k prev
last month revised down from 228

Unemployment Rate

4.2 vs 4.2 f’cast, 4.2 prev

Participation rate 

up 0.1% (bad for bonds)

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM Losing some ground after jobs report.  MBS down about an eighth and 10yr up 5.5bps at 4.271

11:31 AM More selling.  MBS down just over a quarter point and 10yr up 8.8bps at 4.305

12:06 PM More weakness.  10yr up 10.6 bps at 4.323.  MBS down 9 ticks (.28).

03:57 PM Off the weakest levels, but still weak.  MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 9.3bps at 4.31