An atypical summer for home price growth and mortgage rates approaching their lowest point in 12 months could entice sidelined buyers, Cotality said.

Mortgage experts say the government can tweak closing costs, offer tax incentives around home sales and reduce interest rates by various means.

Investors are anticipating the annual preliminary benchmark revision of US payrolls data. Further signs of softening could further raise expectations for Fed easing.

Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades

When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probability of a corrective bounce increases. This is especially true as the rally covers more ground and more time. With 10yr yields dropping nearly 30bps over 4 consecutive sessions, a corrective bounce was a relevant concern, and it arrived today. That said, it was also fairly mild as far as corrective bounces go. On a separate note, many market watchers are confused as to why bonds would lose ground despite a historically large preliminary NFP benchmark revision (released this morning). But this revision pertains to the March 2024 through March 2025 time frame. Not only is that irrelevant to present day market movement, it also fell within most analyst’s range of expectations.

Econ Data / Events

Annual NFP Revision Estimate (March 2024-March 2025)

-911k vs -818k prev

Market Movement Recap

10:05 AM No real reaction to NFP revision estimates.  Modest overnight weakness remains.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.063

10:41 AM A bit more weakness in Treasuries with 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.077.  MBS down an eighth.

02:11 PM Recovering slightly after 3yr auction.  10yr up 2.7bps at 4.066 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

04:02 PM Weakest levels.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.081

It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headline is much scarier than reality. In fact, many borrowers won’t see any detectable difference from yesterday’s latest levels as the average lender’s top tier 30yr fixed rates moved a mere 0.01% higher. This preserves the entirety of the improvement seen last Friday when rates dropped sharply in response to the downbeat jobs report.  There haven’t been major economic reports so far this week (the bonds that underly mortgage rate movement tend to react when important economic reports come in much higher or lower than expected). That changes over the next 2 days. Both Wednesday and Thursday bring important inflation updates via the producer and consumer price indices, respectively. Of the two, Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the bigger potential source of volatility. Taken together, they will help flesh out the inflation considerations that will help the Fed hone in on a pace for the rate cuts that are expected to start in 2 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This is the report that generated buzz over the “revisions” in general, as those particular revisions created a drastically different picture of the labor market in RECENT months. Speaking of recent, today’s NFP revision headline may seem important because it removed an average of 75k jobs per month, but it pertains to a time frame of March 2024 through March 2025.  In other words, these are just numbers on a screen with no meaning. The economic realities of that time frame are already well known and thoroughly reflected in a multitude of other data. Today’s revision just slaps a different label on ancient history. Month-to-month changes are infinitely more important. More importantly, the market reaction has the final say in this matter and it’s telling you not to care.

Tomorrow I head from Boise to Jackson for the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference. Certainly a topic in my email in-box and at events is how Freddie and Fannie’s market share is ebbing, and at noon PT, 3PM ET, Capital Markets Wrap (presented by Polly) will explore if F&F are fading from prominence amid the rise of alternative products, whether the market is getting ahead of itself in expecting mortgage rates to come down and what that means for lenders and investors, take a look at ARM demand and pricing, and discuss how hedging strategies shift during Fed easing cycles. At “the top of the funnel,” all of the news about occupancy fraud inspired attorney and Mortgage Musings author Brian Levy to provide his thoughts about the nuances of the topic in his latest Mortgage Musing. Sign up here to receive Levy’s Musings delivered directly to your email or you can find it on the Chrisman Commentary’s Thought Leadership page. And while we’re at the “top of the funnel,” according to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances increased 47 percent in August while the purchase index decreased 2 percent for August as a whole. August 2025 funded mortgage volume decreased 4% YoY and decreased 6% MoM. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. We drill into this data further here. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Call Equity’s Mel Lund on how operations and sales can assist one another to drive origination volume.)

Black homeownership fell to 43.9% this summer, its lowest since 2021, as rising unemployment and federal layoffs widened housing gaps across demographics.

US Chief Justice John Roberts let President Donald Trump temporarily oust a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, signaling that the Supreme Court is likely to back Trump’s bid to assert control over the independent agency.

White House National Economic Council NEC Director Kevin Hassett endorsed insulating the Fed from political pressure but echoed Trump allies’ calls for reevaluating its mission.