Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House official reiterated/corroborated the overnight news. The supporting actor in today’s rate drama was the Fed announcement. While the Fed didn’t hike rates, 3 voters voiced their opposition to the wording of the Fed’s statement because it tacitly implies the Fed is more inclined to cut rates vs hike them in the near future. Those 3 voters would prefer to indicate that rates could go either way depending on inflation and the economy. The market took this as a minor negative indication for rates. Measuring in terms of 10-year Treasury yields, more than 80% of today’s rate spike was in place before the Fed announcement came out. The average mortgage lender is back to 6.50% for top tier 30-year fixed scenarios, up from 6.38% yesterday. Most lenders made mid-day adjustments to even higher rates as the underlying bond market continued to suffer into the afternoon. 

Today’s Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed

Because today was was a “Fed day” and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a longer-term blockade of The Strait of Hormuz. There were no major issues with the Fed, but the market didn’t like the fact that 3 dissenting voters preferred to abandon the vague reference to future rate cuts via the “additional adjustments” verbiage. 

Econ Data / Events

MBA Purchase Index (Apr)/24

177.7 vs — f’cast, 175.6 prev

MBA Refi Index (Apr)/24

977.9 vs — f’cast, 1023.1 prev

Mortgage (Mar)ket Index (Apr)/24

298.5 vs — f’cast, 303.3 prev

Building Permits (Mar)

1.372M vs 1.39M f’cast, 1.538M prev

Building Permits (Feb)

1.538M vs — f’cast, 1.386M prev

Core CapEx (Mar)

3.3% vs 0.5% f’cast, 0.6% prev

Durable goods (Mar)

0.8% vs 0.5% f’cast, -1.4% prev

Housing starts number mm (Mar)

1.502M vs 1.40M f’cast, — prev

Market Movement Recap

08:31 AM weaker overnight and modest additional selling after 830am data.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.369

10:07 AM MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.402

12:01 PM Some volatility in response to news that the US is considering renewed strikes in Iran, but losses have been erased since then. MBS still down about 30bps and 10yr up 5bps at 4.398

02:16 PM Slightly weaker after Fed announcement. MBS down 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr up 5.8bps at 4.406

02:53 PM Weakest levels. MBS down nearly half a point. 10yr up 7bps at 4.42

The former Wall Street player blamed its decline on rising interest rates, trouble at its lending subsidiary, and debt stemming from the Great Financial Crisis.

CrossCountry increased its agreed-to offer for the real estate investment trust by 50 cents per share, as UWM Holdings made an unsolicited bid on April 20.

Newrez expects significant expense reductions from AI partnerships with HomeVision and Valon, as executives rule out mergers and a Rithm spinoff amid strong Q1 earnings.

Jonathan Corr, the former CEO of Ellie Mae, is one of six new members of MeridianLink’s board, added following its acquisition by Centerbridge Partners.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s April meeting — likely Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s last — is unanimously expected to keep interest rates steady, but questions about energy, inflation and the upcoming transition in leadership still loom.

Modest Gains After Opening Weaker

Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which  continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can’t tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to geopolitical developments. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

39.25K vs — f’cast, 54.75K prev

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Feb)

0.9% vs 1.1% f’cast, 1.2% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Feb)

0.4% vs — f’cast, -0.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Feb)

0.0% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.1% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Feb)

1.7% vs — f’cast, 1.6% prev

Consumer Confidence

92.8 vs 89.0 f’cast, 92.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:14 AM Modestly weaker overnight. 10yr up 2bps at 4.362 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

11:07 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359

02:29 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.357. No reaction to 7 year auction

The big keep getting bigger: Real Brokerage announced that it is purchasing RE/MAX for $550 million, revealing that, including debt, the deal is worth an estimated $880 million. The name will be the Real REMAX Group (“a transformative opportunity to fuse REMAX’s strong brand equity with leading AI technology”) and it’s been reported that Motto Mortgage, owned by RE/MAX, will retain its current business model of a mortgage brokerage franchisor following the completion of this deal. REMAX doesn’t belong to the National Association of Realtors, although “they” say that 87 percent of real estate agents are NAR members. NAR tells us that 63 percent of its members are female. There are agents who are part-time license holders, people who got licensed but never entered the business, and even agents on a team where all deals are closed under the team leader. The 2025 NAR Member Profile paints a different picture. Among REALTORS® specializing in residential sales, only 5 percent reported zero transaction sides in 2024, the typical Realtor completed 10 transaction sides, and Realtors with two years or less experience reported a median of 3 transactions. LOs should be careful who they call on! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with Seroka’s John Seroka on how brands are discovered by prioritizing credible, structured, and widely validated information over traditional SEO, making it critical for companies to build consistent digital authority and trust signals.)

Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing of the underlying market movement. While it’s true that mortgage rates are directly influenced by the bond market, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day. From there, they will occasionally make adjustments if the bond market experiences enough volatility. The catch is that lenders are less likely to adjust rates the later it is in the afternoon and if the bond market has been changing steadily/gradually. With all that in mind, yesterday saw a steady, gradual decline in the bond market that persisted into the late afternoon. As such, most lenders didn’t go to the trouble of adjusting rates yesterday. In other words, the average lender was already planning on raising rates a bit this morning even if the bond market started the day flat. But bonds lost even more ground this morning (before lenders decided on rates for the day). Bottom line, lenders were tasked with adjusting for 2 days of modest weakness all at once. The result is a move that is bigger than the average recent day, but not because the underlying market movement was bigger or more volatile than average. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]