Thanksgiving weeks can be weird for mortgage rates. This has to do with the fact that rates are dictated by the bond market and the bond market depends on real live people who can actually be out of the office on holiday weeks. The lighter levels of participation can increase volatility and cause random movement for no apparent reason. We’ll cross that bridge if we come to it. As far as Monday is concerned, there’s no drama or weirdness to report. Bonds improved modestly throughout the day, thus allowing mortgage rates to move modestly lower.  Because rates were closer to the higher end of their recent range at the end of last week, the small drop means we’re still very much inside the prevailing range. The next two days bring some backlogged economic data. Combined with the typical holiday-week caveats, volatility risk will thus be higher through Wednesday. 

Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery

There’s no question that stock prices and bond yields have had more than the normal amount of correlation recently. While that created some risk of a bond market weakness in the event of a stock market correction, those fears are proving unfounded over the past 2 trading days. Granted, stocks haven’t surged, but they did move back to the highest levels in a week on Monday. But bonds didn’t follow. In fact, after a microscopically stronger start, yields continued to fall gradually throughout the session, ultimately closing at the lowest level since the late October Fed meeting.

Market Movement Recap

08:53 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.05

12:04 PM MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.047

02:52 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.037

It’s a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren’t any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond market movement. Nonetheless, bonds have found a reason to rally ever-so-slightly this morning. Because yields were already at the low end of November’s range on Friday afternoon, the result is that today’s yields are the lowest we’ve seen since the late October Fed day. The next 2 days have quite a bit of data in addition to running a traditional risk of higher volatility due to holiday week trading conditions. In the bigger picture, we’re likely still waiting for the mid-December econ data before bonds would have enough info to threaten the still-relatively-narrow 3 month trading range. 

“Remember to bring up politics at Thanksgiving to save some money on Christmas presents.” “What do tornadoes and Tennessee divorces have in common? Someone’s going to lose a mobile home.” (My father’s family is from there, so I can use that one.) Mobile homes are one segment of the manufactured home biz, and at the other end of the scale there are some grand houses out there that are made in factories… It makes so much sense. Many in the United States believe that manufactured housing, and planned developments, are the way to go, and with good reason. But elsewhere, not so much. Neom, Saudi Arabia’s hugely expensive, architecturally bizarre urban development project, is floundering and close to collapse. “A new report from the Financial Times cites high-level sources within the project to paint a picture of dysfunction and failure at the heart of the quixotic effort.” Acceptance is a matter of supply and demand… Why does the United States have so many big houses? The answer is actually more complicated than you think but if you’re an originator, or work with builders, you should definitely know the reasons. If you’re a proponent of more housing, then you’ll have to unwind some of them. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by The Big Point of Sale, which delivers a fast, flexible, and low-cost mortgage POS that gets lenders up and running in hours (not months) while empowering loan officers and consumers to collaborate seamlessly from any device. Interview with Experian’s Royce Chang on the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act and the end of trigger leads, exploring what the shift means for lenders and how predictive modeling, pre-screen tools, and new borrower-engagement strategies can help them compete and thrive in a privacy-first market.)

The vendor, SitusAMC Group Holdings, LP, said in a statement Saturday that someone compromised its systems and took client data including “accounting records and legal agreements.”

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said the new oath was necessary because prior leadership engaged in what it describes as “thuggery” during exams. Former CFPB officials rejected the agency’s characterization of past actions.

Thursday’s wild selloffs, and further losses Friday, were a reminder that the fervor of retail traders — whipped up in part by Federal Housing Finance Agency head Pulte — can quickly turn sour.

The average premium increase is 64% or $600 a year more, and in some states the rate would go up by more than $1,000, the comparison shopping platform found.

A federal judge in Pennsylvania ruled the debtor could not prove she was injured by any alleged conduct by Nationstar or other defendants WSFS and A&D.

While some international purchasers are reluctant to buy in the U.S. right now, interest in investment properties still abounds, the CEO of Waltz said.