Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war.  Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were “ready to end the war.” The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting “certain guarantees.”  They also came from Iran’s President and not the Supreme Leader. Still, stocks, bonds, and oil prices all responded. The bond market response involved additional improvement. As bonds improve, rates move lower.  The net effect for mortgage rates was a move back below 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender. This marks the best 2 days of improvement since the war began, but the caveat is that the larger movements are often seen after rates hit longer-term highs.

The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as much just before the open when Trump said the hard part is essentially done on the Iran war (and that other countries should just go take their own oil now, or buy it from the U.S.). The initial move took yields from 4.36 to 4.33 and the pre-open rally was 4.34 to 4.30–“moderate,” but notable as it is happening on the day after an already big rally. War headlines remain in focus despite econ data ramping up. If 10am ET job openings data is spicy enough, it could command some attention given that the “recession fear” trade is thought to be the key reason that bond yields defied higher oil prices yesterday.
Today’s charts highlight the correlation that continues to exist between bonds and oil price volatility in the short term, and the absence of that correlation over certain, longer time frames. In other words, markets are still paying attention, but the bonds do indeed look increasingly cognizant of growth impacts.

Appraisal methodology and analysis have changed over the years, and we’re about to undergo another major alteration with UAD 3.6. Some investors are ahead of the 11/2/26 curve. For example, Newrez is now accepting loans from clients who have adopted the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) 3.6 Appraisal and Forms Redesign and submitted via the Uniform Collateral Data Portal (UCDP) “for all conforming loans and non-QM loans (Smart Series). Government (FHA, VA, and USDA), JUMBO AUS and Closed-end seconds loans must continue using the UAD 2.6 appraisals.” This write up by AXIS AMC’s Mike Simmons is a good primer: all appraisals, to be eligible for sale to Fannie and Freddie, must be submitted in UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format. Class Valuation’s Mark Walser told me that lenders need to have begun setting up the process and planning in the first quarter of 2026, and spend the 2nd and 3rd quarters testing and transitioning their appraisal volume to it. I am sure that it will be a topic on tomorrow’s interview with Deephaven’s Tom Davis, sponsored by L1. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by RelCu. RelCu is the all-in-one agentic platform driving conversion, retention, and cross-sell across mortgage and deposits. Today’s features an interview after 6AM PT with Guild Mortgage’s Terry Schmidt on understanding borrower behavior, adoption of AI-driven and digital capabilities, affordability, and access, and both cultural and structural shifts toward data-driven proactive lending.)

Olive Branch Home Loans is the first business established through a new LoanDepot partnership model aimed to help builders scale internal lending units.

The latest statement from UWM cited TWO’s settlement with its former external manager and declared its management team to be driven by ego, not sound judgement.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is cautiously monitoring consumer sentiment as tensions from the Iran war push energy prices higher, complicating efforts to bring inflation down to the Fed’s target.

The federal court rejected Flagstar’s attempts for both a panel rehearing and an en banc hearing to overturn California’s interest on mortgage escrow rule.

The government MBS guarantor ended a 15-day advance notice mandate for extensions on a filing deadline so those with a March 31 due date can still ask for one.

Do you remember when everyone was talking about the lack of housing inventory as a problem for buyers? Those days are long gone: There are now nearly 50 percent more home sellers than buyers as mismatch widens to a record 630,000. (Of course this is depending on price point and location.) And what they’re selling isn’t necessarily new: Per the American Community Survey, it seems that the median owner-occupied house is about 43 years old. As anyone from the building profession will tell you, at any given time the 5 L’s (labor, lots, laws, lumber, and lending) can create problems. Some will say there’s a 2.5 million unit mismatch. There isn’t necessarily a shortage, just the wrong housing stock in the wrong locations at the wrong price points. Regardless of supply and demand, tech marches on, and today at 1PM ET we have Now Next Later, Sponsored by Depth: Jeremy Potter and Mike Yu of Vesta revisit how AI is transforming mortgage communication across calls, texts, and emails. The conversation focuses on improving conversion, reducing missed opportunities, and driving more consistent performance across sales teams. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by RelCu. RelCu is the all-in-one agentic platform driving conversion, retention, and cross-sell across mortgage and deposits. Today’s features an interview with Lennar’s Laura Escobar on leadership, housing trends, people-first leadership, and the ongoing evolution of diversity and mentorship.)

The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recovered nicely over the weekend.  By Friday afternoon, the average rate was 6.64%–the highest since August 2025–adding to a trend of rapid upward movement over the course of March. While there’s no way to know if a bigger picture corner has been turned, it’s a victory in the short term. Notably, the underlying bond market broke from its typical correlation with oil prices today. The latter has experienced severe volatility due to the Iran war, and bonds have been affected due to inflation implications. It’s too soon to determine if that’s happening for temporary reasons relating to the calendar more than underlying events and economic fundamentals.