Properties with default notices, scheduled auctions and REOs are up by double digits compared to last summer as buyers are mired in a high-cost environment.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. shares surged by as much as 69% Thursday after announcing the return of its co-founders to the board and a new chief executive officer.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage had its largest decline in a year as it is universally anticipated the Federal Open Market Committee will cut short-term rates.

The opening trades were at $11 higher than what Figure priced the initial public offering, and in early action, the stock has ranged from $32 to $37 per share.

Today’s inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly calm.  There are multiple subheadings of data that the bond market cares about when it come to CPI. Most of them were in line with expectations, or close enough to avoid surprising investors. The absence of surprise gave way to some improvement in bonds which, in turn, allowed mortgage lenders to start the day at just slightly lower levels.  Additionally, a higher reading in this morning’s weekly jobless claims report may have helped. Officially, the top tier 30yr fixed rate at the average lender just barely scratched out a new 11-month low, but most borrowers would see little–if any–difference compared to the past 4 days.

Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising

One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market mover after the jobs report. With that in mind, it might seem surprising that MBS are heading out the door roughly unchanged and 10yr yields are down less than 3bps. It becomes less surprising when we consider inflation was mostly in line with expectations. Elevated unrounded core numbers were offset by decent drop in supercore (services excluding energy and shelter). When it comes to this morning’s initial rally, we’d give more credit to supercore than we would to the pop in Jobless Claims, but both probably played a role. Either way, all today’s CPI really needed to do was stay out of the way of rate cut signals in the last jobs report, and it generally did.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Aug)/30

1,939K vs 1950K f’cast, 1940K prev

Continued Claims (Aug)/30

1,939K vs 1950K f’cast, 1940K prev

Jobless Claims (Sep)/06

263K vs 235K f’cast, 237K prev

Jobless Claims (Sep)/06

263K vs 235K f’cast, 237K prev

m/m CORE CPI (Aug)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.3% prev

m/m CORE CPI (Aug)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.3% prev

m/m Headline CPI (Aug)

0.4% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.2% prev

m/m Headline CPI (Aug)

0.4% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.2% prev

y/y CORE CPI (Aug)

3.1% vs 3.1% f’cast, 3.1% prev

y/y CORE CPI (Aug)

3.1% vs 3.1% f’cast, 3.1% prev

y/y Headline CPI (Aug)

2.9% vs 2.9% f’cast, 2.7% prev

y/y Headline CPI (Aug)

2.9% vs 2.9% f’cast, 2.7% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:46 AM Initially stronger after data, but pulling back a bit.  MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.032

02:03 PM Holding modest gains.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.2bps at 4.017

04:05 PM Fairly flat, but near weaker levels of the past few hours. MBS up only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.02

“All I know is what I read in the papers,” Will Rogers quipped. In news in the papers from our Census Bureau, AI use at large companies is in decline. “A dip in corporate AI adoption isn’t a great sign for an industry hellbent on world domination.” I am good at misunderestimating things, but will it go the way of blockchain (which is alive and simmering, but just not on the “front burner”)? This is a weak segue, but speaking of simmering, did you know that ChatGPT consumes an inordinately large amount of the world’s water supply? I wouldn’t say that AI or ChatGPT are fads, but I received this note: “We have experimented with corporate branding, management, mission statements, team building, you name it. None have really worked. The nice thing about markets like this is that they force you to face the fact that there are only a few things that actually work: expense cutting and extremely aggressive sales and marketing. And once you figure that out, you no longer fear markets like this.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Outamation’s Sapan Bafna on how companies can streamline FHA modification workflows and eliminate compliance risks.) Services, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

It’s an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market’s reaction.  At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded numbers were a bit hot (i.e. core monthly CPI was 0.346%, almost high enough to make for a 0.4 vs 0.3 reading). Additionally, monthly headline inflation was 0.4 vs 0.3. These numbers, in and of themselves, wouldn’t seem to suggest a bond rally.  At the same moment, Jobless Claims printed at 263k vs a 235k forecast–the highest reading since 2021. The initial conclusion is that there is enough labor market concern to offset still-elevated inflation, but a drop in supercore inflation (excludes food/energy/housing) may be the bigger factor.  Last month’s supercore, per Bloomberg, was 0.481.  This month, it fell to 0.330. This basically means inflation is standing aside and allowing the Fed to focus on the weaker labor market–a conclusion that’s far more informed by the last jobs report than today’s jobless claims.

Fairway Home Mortgage wants to give its loan officers tools to analyze data in order to spend more time helping their customers than going through paperwork.

Falling interest rates led to a rush in refinancing, but slowing purchase activity brought a decline in overall lock volumes, according to Optimal Blue.