Thursday’s Rally Changes Nothing Ahead of Jobs Report

Thursday’s Rally Changes Nothing Ahead of Jobs Report

While bonds definitely had a logical reaction to this morning’s stronger Jobless Claims data at first, a less logical rally followed shortly thereafter.  By the time we zoom out and consider the week as a whole, we see a gradual downtrend in yields leading back from Tuesday’s highs with brief departures to react to economic reports.  In other words, there’s a big picture, strategic circling of the wagons ahead of Friday’s jobs report.  The best thing you could say about it is that it indicates bonds can be receptive to stronger or weaker data.  

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

207k vs 210k f’cast, 205k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but losing ground after data.  MBS down a quarter point.  10yr up 2.7bps at 4.764.

09:08 AM Decent little recovery.  10yr down 0.4bps at 4.733.  MBS down an eighth

03:20 PM Flat near best levels.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.71

Another Calm, Slightly Better Day For Rates, But All Bets Are Off Tomorrow

For the first time in nearly a month, the bond market (which dictates day to day mortgage rate movement) managed to string together two winning days in a row.   Sure, the outright level of the average 30yr fixed is still the 3rd highest in 20+ years, but when things have gone as poorly as they have for rates, we’re happy to count any little victory. Today’s victory was somewhat of a puzzler considering the stronger economic data.  The Fed has repeated its “data dependent” stance when it comes to monetary policy and the bond market has been very data dependent as a result.  That means rates tend to fall when the data is weak and rise when the data is strong. If there’s an explanation for the paradox, it could be as simple as the bond market preferring to take a big picture approach after rates hit super-long-term highs on Tuesday.  Since then, there’s been a very gentle trend back in the other direction.  Economic data has caused brief departures in logical directions, but the underlying trend returned shortly thereafter.  This could also be the market’s way of hunkering down before the most important economic data of the week (and arguably, the month): The Employment Situation.  That’s the official name for the big jobs report that gives us the important “nonfarm payrolls” (NFP) figure at 8:30am ET tomorrow morning.  The market expects roughly 170k jobs to be created.  If the actual number is much higher, rates will likely move higher as well.  If NFP is much lower, our 2 day trend of improvement has a very good chance of becoming a 3 day trend.  The bigger the departure from expectations, the bigger the potential swing in rates.

Bonds Finding Buyers Despite Stronger Data

Time for another installment of “finding a narrative to fit the price action.”  In other words, bonds aren’t doing what we’d expect based on this morning’s economic data.  That happens sometimes.  Most recently, it tends to happen in the other direction (i.e. bonds selling despite weak data).  In today’s case, one of the only ways to reconcile the friendly reversal is to say something like “it’s not uncommon to see corrective rallies when yields are so close to multi-decade highs, or on the day before a key data point like the jobs report.”  Sadly, it can also mean that bond sellers are simply squaring positions (i.e. not “new” buying of bonds as much as a side effect of previous selling).  Either way, the move is small enough not to obsess over, but green enough to appreciate.

Hedging Cost, Reno, CRA, HELOAN, Home Inspection, Cybersecurity Products; LO Conversation Shift; Ginnie, USDA, FHA News

Hal M. writes, “Monday is a holiday. The observance reminded me of the small Italian parade we had in Maine on Columbus Day. All the marchers were under 5 foot 4.” Bah dah bum. Clients come in all shapes and sizes. An experienced loan originator will tell you, “Never tell a client about a problem until you’ve solved it.” An originator will also, when talking to a client, show them that their timing matters more than market timing. Put another way, home price appreciation is earned by buying a place and holding it, rather than timing the purchase based on interest rates. Roughly speaking, there are 4.8 million real estate sales in a given year, and 3.6 million of them will have a loan. Figure about 1.3 million refinances, which gives us a total of about 4.9 million mortgage transactions. These include debt consolidation refinances, moving out of 3 percent loans but paying off 30 percent credit card debt with a 7.5 percent loan. Originators are telling their borrowers, “A few years ago we saved you money on your interest rate. This time, given the rate on your credit cards, let’s take a look at your entire debt picture.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE creates accurate data that powers automation and optimizes every step of the lending lifecycle, helping lending organizations rapidly process loans, dramatically cut costs and risk, and radically improve the customer experience. Hear an interview with Fairway Independent’s Adam Levitt on renovation loan solutions for buyers, existing homeowners, contractors, and real estate agents.)