Although last month’s CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter component, the producer price index was much higher than expected.  While bonds were able to look past the headline and ultimately stabilize, it nonetheless raised questions about the risks of choppy inflation readings persisting.  Today’s PPI release not only revised last month’s a bit lower, but also came in significantly lower than expected at the core level.  Bonds aren’t rushing to trade it as proof positive of a repeat with tomorrow’s more important CPI data, but it’s certainly not hurting so far this morning.

The change in medical debt reporting initiated by the three credit bureaus did not go far enough as 15 million Americans are still impacted, the groups led by the National Consumer Law Center said.

The increase in refinance volume in July took place before the mortgage rate collapse in early August that brought the share to over 25%, Optimal Blue data showed.

The FHA-loan market, in particular, saw the share of piggyback originations increase over two years, while the pace of growth in conventional lending was more muted, Corelogic said.

Risks include pushing debt-to-income ratios too high for qualifying and rising costs leading to defaults, all of which affect the secondary markets.

Zillow said the share of listings on its platform that offered concessions topped 33% last month, up from 25% a year earlier.

Today was completely different than the previous Monday in that it was a normal, boring day with essentially no change in mortgage rates over the weekend.  Contrast that to last Monday which saw an extension of an already wild run to the lowest levels in more than a year. Since last week, the rate market has corrected back into the lower portion of the prevailing range (as opposed to the super low portion, as seen at the beginning of last week and the end of the previous week).  In other words, if you’d left town on August 1st and returned today, you’d still be seeing the lowest rates since April 2023. The average lender remains in the mid 6’s when it comes to top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios.   This could change in the coming days as important new economic reports are released.  Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest deal, but tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (PPI) could play a supporting role.   As always, there’s no way to know which way rates will move in response to an economic report ahead of time.

Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains

From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light.  This isn’t a surprise at this time of year, nor is the absence of any meaningful impact on the bigger picture trend (contrast this to last Monday which was the 2nd highest volume day of the year and truly exceptional for a number of reasons).  Today means the bond market is falling back into a vanilla routine that involves consolidation ahead of this week’s big ticket economic reports.  There could have been modest losses or gains without affecting the set-up.  As it happened, we got the version with modest gains.

Market Movement Recap

09:55 AM Sideways overnight with early modest volatility.  10yr down half a bp at 3.937.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06).

12:17 PM Still choppy, but slightly stronger.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3bp at 3.912

03:57 PM Off the best levels, but still stronger.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06).  10yr down 3.8bps at 3.904

With almost three more months of political jabbering, here’s a town in Kentucky that keeps politics in perspective with qualified candidates. In a mix of politics and lending, candidate Trump was quoted (again) saying that he wants more control over the Federal Reserve and setting interest rates. Lenders and vendors, of course, are less concerned with political dickering and more concerned with helping our clients in the here and now. According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances have increased nicely. “Additionally, July 2024 funded mortgage volume increased 8% YoY and increased 7% MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in July 2024 was 7.02, 9bps lower than June 2024 and 36bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. We drill into this data further here.) (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Truv. Truv lets applicants verify income, employment, assets, insurance, and switch direct deposits. Unlock the power of open finance, with Truv. Hear an interview with Mortgage Advisors Steven Cooley on the capabilities of mortgage technology and how lenders are making vendor decisions in the market.) Lender and Broker Software and Services “The mortgage industry is evolving, and appraisers are adapting! The future of valuations is here, with new technologies like inspection-based waivers (IBWs) streamlining the process. IBWs can save borrowers time and money, and lenders need to understand how to implement them effectively. The “Leaders in Lending: Inspection-Based Appraisal Waivers” webinar recording offers valuable insights into the benefits and challenges of IBWs, best practices for implementation, and expert opinions on the future of appraisal modernization. Watch the webinar recording today and stay ahead of the curve in this rapidly changing industry!”

Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes–especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week.  The perennial downside of low volume is that it can result in higher volatility than would otherwise be seen.  There has been a bit of an uptick in volatility this morning, but it is thankfully resulting in slightly stronger trading levels.  All that having been said, the week doesn’t truly begin until the big ticket econ data starts rolling in.  The biggest ticket is Wednesday’s CPI, but we could certainly see a reaction to Tuesday’s PPI if it’s far enough from forecast levels.