In the mortgage business, Rate has the biggest upside in the Compass-Anywhere M&A as it has joint ventures with both Guaranteed Rate Affinity and Originpoint.

Slow Burn With Little to Blame

Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually throughout the day. While there were multiple Fed speakers on tap, none of the comments garnered any clear reaction. In terms of timing, the losses only really line up with the start of the 9:30am NYSE open–something that can sometimes create tradeflow dynamics that impact bonds–especially when we’re only talking about the sort of modest move seen today.

Market Movement Recap

10:49 AM Slightly weaker after opening flat.  UMBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.136

02:46 PM 10yr yields are up almost 2bps at 4.415 and MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the day

Many participants promoted AI-backed products aimed at promoting engagement and retention of existing customers, with features from deepfakes to voice agents.

VantageScore 4.0 is more predictive than Classic FICO, offering a measurable lift in identifying high-risk borrowers and avoiding losses, according to the chief data scientist at VantageScore.

The average return on investment for flipped homes was 25.1% in the second quarter this year, the lowest point since the second quarter of 2008.

MSR investment persists and some values have stabilized since policymakers’ rate cut confirmed anticipatory loan pricing, flattening some mortgage rates.

The broker advocate and the trade group she previously led have both included other industry players in the legal dispute over nearly $1 million in payments.

Manuel Valdes, after he was terminated and sued by Cornerstone, brought a claim against his former employer, plus Marc and Adam Laird, alleging discrimination.

Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reason being: some lenders offered mid-day improvements yesterday, but not enough to impact our index.  Those same lenders are generally a hair higher today, but again, the average lender is a hair lower. In the bigger picture, it’s just as well to consider today as a “sideways” day, and that’s a victory at the moment.  A sideways day means that the 2 day losing streak that took the average rate roughly 0.25% higher is finally finding its footing. While 0.25% is a sharp move to be sure, today’s levels would still be the best in 11 months notwithstanding the past two weeks.  No one knows what’s next for mortgage rates.  That will depend primarily on the upcoming economic data in early October and, to a lesser extent, the deluge of Fed speeches in the coming week. 

The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now.