Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to the weekend without good news on negotiations, the more escalation risk will be priced-in by the market due to the Saturday deadline on Trump’s ultimatum to reopen shipping channels lest they be taken by force.

What’s new out there? Well, United Airlines is talking about having couches in the air. There’s always something new in compliance, and there are firms that specialize in it including Feewise, Truework, Asurity, RiskExec, TENA, ACES Quality Management, Firstline Compliance, and LicensingStore.com listed in the Marketplace. There’s always something new impacting mortgage rates. “Rob, I know that short term rates have gone up more than long term rates. Doesn’t an inverted yield curve, where short term rates are higher than long term rates, portend a recession?” Not always, especially when it is temporary. All kinds of people predicted a recession a few years ago that never materialized, reminding us that no one can predict the future. That said, financial companies like JPMorgan Chase predict no Fed cuts in 2026 and mortgage rates, which have gone back up to last summer’s levels, aren’t helping biz. Investors don’t think much of the prospects for builders, and their stocks have behaved accordingly. PulteGroup, for example, is at a one-year low, down 20 percent from a few months ago. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Quorum Federal Credit Union offering a broker outlet. Quorum empowers brokers to close more deals with flexible, high-LTV mortgage and HELOC solutions featuring up to 4 percent comp, low FICO options, and versatile programs for nearly every borrower scenario. Each day’s podcast features an interview with a mortgage luminary after 6AM PT, today’s with Peter Idziak with Polunsky Beitel Green on President Trump’s executive order’s impact on mortgage regulations.)

After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have been at or near the highest levels in 7-8 months over the past 4 days. Today easily took them to slightly higher levels as global financial markets lost ground. The move lines up symmetrically with lower stock prices and higher oil prices. Until there’s meaningful and lasting de-escalation of the Iran war, the safest bet is for more volatility for interest rates. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

The Federal Home Loan Bank system, a Depression-era program designed to shore up mortgage lending that has morphed into a go-to — and controversial — source of cheap financing for banks and other financial institutions.

Lenders and condo market stakeholders are raising concerns that new GSE rules ending limited reviews and tightening reserve requirements could raise costs and limit access.

The title policy and settlement statement datasets introduce digital standards that will allow the information on forms to move as data instead of documents.

The national delinquency rate ticked up seven basis points to 3.72% last month, coupled with a 10-basis-point increase in prepayment speed, according to ICE.

Stakeholders rely on detailed, easy-to-read reports. From including cited data to using a structured format, learn how to simplify the lending reports process.

Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?

Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of the Iran war (i.e. ceasefire vs more strikes and negotiations vs no communication). If Iran is refuting U.S. claims regarding de-escalation, why would bonds be calmly in stronger territory? Simply put: U.S. claims regarding de-escalation matter more than verified agreements with Iran. If the U.S. wants to wind down the war, that’s what will happen and that’s what the bond market likes.

Econ Data / Events

Import Prices

1.3 vs 0.5 f’cast, 0.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM Choppy and slightly stronger. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.327

11:32 AM Near best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.315

01:26 PM Relatively weak 5yr auction but no major reaction. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.329

03:06 PM Holding sideways at similar levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.323

The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There’s a ceasefire. There’s no ceasefire. There’s negotiation. There’s no negotiation, etc. As far as the rate market is concerned, the most important development has been the general appearance of a shift toward diplomacy and resolution on the U.S. side. This has been enough for oil prices to preserve a majority of the drop seen at the start of the week.  Bond yields (which correlate with mortgage rates) have been doing even better than oil prices today. The net effect is the lowest average mortgage rates since last Thursday. Notably, these rates are still sharply higher than February’s and, apart from the past few days, the highest since early September, 2025. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]