War in the Middle East made oil prices go up, higher oil prices hurt world economies and stock markets because prices and inflation go up, and higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. At least, that’s the way it usually works, as does the opposite. Last week stock markets surged as pivotal geopolitical development reshaped investor sentiment: The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marked a major step toward de-escalation in the Middle East, with ongoing negotiations fueling optimism that a broader resolution may be closer than previously expected. Oil prices plunged roughly 14 percent intraday, briefly nearing $80 per barrel, down sharply from nearly $120 just ten days ago at peak tensions. But that was then, and this is now. And who knows what will happen next? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lead generation to closing and beyond, Experian empowers mortgage professionals with advanced data, credit insights, and decisioning tools to grow pipelines, manage risk, and stay compliant in a rapidly changing market. Hear an interview with Noise Media Group’s Joe Levi on how marketers are turning SEO budgets into generative engine optimization (GEO) to maintain visibility across AI-driven results that pull from diverse sources like structured data, news, and social content.) Wholesale and Correspondent Product and Corporate News NFTYDoor, an end-to-end digital HELOC software platform, today announced it is now operating as a fully independent company, enabling direct partnerships with wholesale brokers and private label correspondents, alongside a significant expansion of credit parameters and partner economics. Key enhancements include minimum FICO reduced from 640 to 600, maximum CLTV increased from 80 to 90 percent, maximum loan amount increased from $500,000 to $750,000, borrower rates reduced by 100+ bps, increased compensation for brokers and private label partners, and a fully embedded, no-cost warehouse line for private label partners. Access to NFTYDoor’s enhanced end-to-end HELOC origination solution is available exclusively to partners contracting directly with NFTYDoor. Contact hello@nftydoor.com.

Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dictate mortgage rate movement, the average lender remained very close to Friday’s latest levels.  MND’s rate index (a measure of top-tier 30yr fixed rates) rose by 0.01% which is the smallest increment we measure. Since April 14th, the index has held inside a narrow range of 0.03% with the bottom of that range representing the lowest rate in over a month. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next 2 days as the 2 week Iran war ceasefire expires. The market is generally positioned for further de-escalation, but there’s more room for improvement if the war officially ends and Hormuz fully reopens. Conversely, if there’s unexpected escalation in the next 48 hours, rates could also move back up.

Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday’s drop on the news and bonds erased more than half of the associated gains. But both began bouncing back slowly in overnight trading. Bonds are now moving back into positive territory on recent headlines that suggest peace talks are back on.

Sun Belt states saw a noticeable surge in liens filed last year, with Florida accounting for 17% of the national total, according to Benutech.

About 43% of Americans upgraded their homes last year, and 33% plan to remodel in the next year, according to a recent survey from Redfin.

Surge, which claims to serve some of the nation’s larger wholesale players, said the lender’s behavior was reminiscent of its spat with Black Knight.

CEO Tim Spence said folding in the acquired bank has gone to plan so far, but the biggest point of risk is still on the horizon.

Questions about the single-report option and whether VantageScore should be introduced before FICO 10T arose during a hearing on broader legislative proposals.

AM Gains Mostly Stick Around

Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl. 

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM Modest overnight gains and then more buying on war headlines. MBS up over a quarter point and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.262

01:03 PM MBS up 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.237

04:26 PM little changed as the close approaches. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.244

Builder confidence fell sharply in April as rising costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment heading into the spring buying season. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped four points to 34 , its lowest level since September 2025. The decline marks a notable setback after modest gains in recent months, with sentiment remaining firmly below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. All three major components of the index moved lower. The gauge of current sales conditions fell four points to 37 , while the index measuring future sales expectations dropped seven points to 42 . The component tracking prospective buyer traffic declined three points to 22 , reflecting continued softness in demand. “Builder sentiment has fallen back in spring as buyers face ongoing elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He added that geopolitical risks and rising energy costs have further dampened confidence and slowed expected momentum in the housing market. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to increasing pressure from higher fuel prices, noting that a majority of builders are seeing rising material costs as a result. He also highlighted that uncertainty around input costs is making it more difficult for builders to price homes, adding another layer of strain on the market.