Knocking on wood is an apotropaic (averting bad luck) tradition of literally touching, tapping, or knocking on wood, or merely stating that one is doing or intending to do so, in order to avoid “tempting fate” after making a favorable prediction or boast, or a declaration concerning one’s own death or another unfavorable situation. Many believe it originated with pagan groups and cultures around the world, such as the Celts, who worshipped and mythologized the trees. These groups believed the trees were home to their various gods and with the touch of wood, a spirit could bring protection. Don’t get me wrong, I love predictions as much as the next guy. Often entertaining, often wrong, but who can keep track months or years later to hold the forecaster accountable when the forecaster is entirely wrong? Remember how some believed that the home purchase business in 2022 was going to make up for a sizeable chunk of the lost refi business (due to rates going up and refi burnout)? Well, existing home sales have been down four months in a row. Who was predicting the pandemic, and its impact on interest rates and housing? Who was predicting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on worldwide inflation? (Today’s podcast is available here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. With Candor’s Machine as an Underwriter, lenders modernize their manufacturing infrastructure making them immune to margin, capacity, and staffing challenges forever.) Broker and Lender Services and Programs