Mortgage rates are an extension of the financial market, so it’s no surprise that they’ve been more volatile than normal over the past few weeks as markets react to fiscal headlines. The latest dust-up involved Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell which resulted in higher rates over the weekend. Now today we’ve had several comments from Trump (starting yesterday evening) saying that he was never planning to fire Powell and just generally conveying a more measured tone. Financial markets responded favorably. Had this been the only news of the day, rates would have dropped almost an eighth of a point.  We can arrive at this conclusion due to trading levels in the bond market at the time.  But other news pushed back in the other direction. Specifically, a closely watched gauge of business activity showed the sharpest spike in prices in 13 months in the services sector and 29 months for the manufacturing sector. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all other things being equal. Many mortgage lenders were forced to raise rates during the day, ultimately resulting in today’s average being only modestly lower than yesterday’s.  

“I won a million dollars and donated a quarter of it to charity! I now have $999999.75 left.” Money can be funny… or not. In the past, a “flight to quality” or “flight to safety” didn’t involve feckless investors searching for a place to park their money when there was turmoil in the world. It usually involved buying securities issued in the United States, like bonds or MBS. That has changed, hence gold hitting $3,400 dollars an ounce, prompting analysts to wonder if the United States’ (which in the past was the world’s strongest economy) dollar is still thought of as the world’s reserve currency. Despite U.S. stocks being down 10 percent this year, U.S. bond prices and interest rates have done little. Will we only care if it impacts our borrowers? Perhaps. The spring homebuilding season is slower than usual, with housing starts are down 11.4 percent in March month-over-month. Direct and indirect reverberations from tariffs are an element of this; while 7 percent of goods that go into residential construction are imported, economic concerns about the health of the economy are a fairly large factor in the decision whether or not to buy a new home. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s core products unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with dataQollab’s Adam Quinones on how traders are making sense of unpredictability in markets recently.)

Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday.  The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade stand-off with China. Whether approached through the lens of inflation or decreased foreign appetite for USD assets (a byproduct of decreased consumption of foreign imports), excessive tariffs have not been good for bonds.  The more timely factor was Trump’s tirade against the Fed Chair last Thursday and again on Monday.  Global markets sold USD assets in response.  Then in the blink of an eye last night, Trump said he’s not really thinking of firing Powell AND that tariffs on China won’t be as high as initially announced.  USD assets rallied and they continue to rally this morning.  The end. 

Chairman and CEO David Spector, in weighing Rocket Cos.’ purchase of Mr. Cooper, suggested Pennymac’s balanced business model couldn’t be duplicated.

Don Layton, former Freddie Mac CEO, and self-proclaimed “GSEologist” predicts that a release of the two entities will occur within four to six years.

Moody’s Corp., a company that grades bonds and analyzes corporations’ financial performance, said it expects to earn less this year than it had previously forecast.

The Sunshine State deal comes following a banner year for credit union-bank combinations, despite pushback from community banking advocates.

A large share of each generation, baby boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z, said another age group is the reason why homeownership is unaffordable, Clever found.

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility

Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds and MBS managed a modest victory. While this isn’t really a victory considering the mixed performance, it was better than a sharp stick in the eye.  Moreover, MBS were able to outperform–something that is not at all uncommon on the first few days of a Treasury auction week.  In the bigger picture, yields are hugging the upper boundary of a trend that would seem fairly boring and only slightly weaker over the past few months after breaking sharply below and above that trend after the tariff announcement drama. 

Econ Data / Events

Leading Indicators

-0.7 vs -0.5 f’cast, -0.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:50 AM Moderately stronger overnight after initial weakness. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.378.

01:15 PM Fairly weak 2yr auction.  Some additional selling, but still stronger on the day.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.387

03:30 PM Sideways near same levels.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.395

The homebuilder agreed to acquire Alliant National in a transaction announced last October, with this deal closing after the Cherry Creek mortgage purchase.