Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year .  This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle Atlantic to +1.1% in the East South Central division. Over the past year, prices declined 0.4% in the Pacific division but climbed as much as 5.1% in the East North Central region—broadly echoing Case-Shiller’s Midwest-versus-Sun-Belt divide. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.4% year-over-year gain in November, unchanged from October. While this is one of the lowest readings of the past several years, it’s also one of the first time the index moved higher from the previous month in more than a year.   On a month-to-month basis, the seasonally adjusted index rose 0.4% . The 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain , up slightly from 1.3% previously, and increased 0.5% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment.

Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity. Refinance volume saw the largest pullback. The Refinance Index declined 16% from the prior week, though applications remained 156% higher than the same week one year ago. Even with the latest decline, refinance demand continues to run well above last year’s levels following January’s earlier burst of activity. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist said, “With rates holding in the 6 percent range, the refinance market is likely to remain sensitive to week-to-week rate movements.” Purchase activity was comparatively steady. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dipped just 0.4% , while unadjusted purchase applications fell 4% on the week but remained 18% higher than the same period last year—continuing to suggest that buyer engagement has been more stable than refinance demand at the start of 2026.

There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary’s Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes, and operational inefficiencies quietly inflate monthly payments, and why lowering mortgage origination friction, modernizing appraisal and title practices, and revisiting pricing policies could meaningfully ease borrower burden without adding risk. Read the full article to unpack where these pressures originate and what coordinated changes could shift the trajectory. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Prudent AI’s Suha Zehl on moving certainty to the front of the lending process to reduce operational friction, eliminate late-stage surprises, and allow lenders to scale volume, protect margins, and serve complex borrowers without adding staff.)

Competition that impacted margins and prepayments in excess of expectations were challenges during the period, but executives report first quarter improvement.

VA- and FHA-backed mortgages helped drive the increase in property volume, but sales did not maintain the same pace, according to Auction.com.

Stop chasing digital leads and invest in face-to-face partnerships that build trust and referrals sustainable growth, writes a leader of Choice Mortgage Group.

Even with the 4 basis point rise in the 30-year fixed over the past two weeks, mortgage rates are still hovering near three-year lows, Freddie Mac said.

Analysts estimate Pennymac, Rocket, UWM and Loandepot will post an improved earnings per share and total loan origination volume than the same time a year prior.

Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped

Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure.  It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday’s lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday’s highs). In other words, it was “in-range weakness”–the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn’t lose any ground after the stock/commodities move reversed.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jan)/17

1,827K vs 1860K f’cast, 1849K prev

Jobless Claims (Jan)/24

209K vs 205K f’cast, 200K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:40 AM No reaction to AM econ data.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.246.

09:51 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.253 after mystery, mini-sell-off levels off. 

01:09 PM No reaction to 7yr auction. 10yr yield down 1bp at 4.233 and MBS unchanged. 

03:39 PM Sideways near stronger levels in Treasuries with 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.228.  MBS roughly unchanged.

Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today’s case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities.  While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That’s no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.  Apart from the week of Jan 12-16th, this is right in line with the lowest levels going back to early 2023.