Regardless of the effect housing prices have on ballot decisions, almost two-thirds of respondents indicate that current economic trends left them feeling negative about the economy, Redfin said.

The head of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development under the Biden Administration said she will transition from public life starting March 22.

Loan officers and branch managers have started transitioning to competitors such as Union Home Mortgage, CrossCountry Mortgage and The Money Store.

Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday’s Data

Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder trading day that it was probably always destined to be.  Bonds lost a modest amount of ground early, regained most of it, and then lost it again by the close.  All told, it was only a few bps in terms of 10yr yields and thus not worth writing home about.  Trading levels have obviously leveled off in a sideways holding pattern ahead of Tuesday’s CPI.  On that note, it would be difficult to overstate the potential energy for bonds waiting on the other side of 8:30am ET.  Granted, there’s always a chance that the needle is threaded and little movement ensues, but there’s also a chance that it’s the most dramatic day for bonds in months, for better or worse.  

Market Movement Recap

09:28 AM Sideways to slightly weaker in uneventful trading.  MBS down an eighth.  10yr up half a bp at 4.081

12:14 PM Weaker into the 11am hour, but recovering now.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.10

03:05 PM Slightly stronger after 1pm TSY auction, but weaker into 3pm close.  10yr up 2.3bps at 4.10.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16)

Mortgage rates hit their best levels in more than a month by the end of last week after moving lower for 4 straight days.  If you could only know one thing about today, it’s that although rates didn’t extend their winning streak, they are still very close to Friday’s levels–close enough that the typical borrower wouldn’t care or notice.     Today is old news, however.  Tomorrow is where all the excitement is.   Tomorrow (Tuesday) brings the regular monthly installment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.  There are more than 50 scheduled economic reports on any given month that might have an impact on rates, but only two that are on another level of market movement potential.  CPI is both of them. Well, CPI is at least one of them, but the other one (the big jobs report that came out last Friday) didn’t exercise its right to cause big drama for rates.  Thus, all eyes are on CPI tomorrow.  If it comes in much higher or lower than expected, rates will likely react in a major way. How major?  That really depends on the data.  Using the range of outcomes in the past few years, a bad result could push rates higher by a quarter point while a good result could have an equally large benefit.  All that having been said, reality tends to fall somewhere in between, but there’s no doubt the POTENTIAL is there for something bigger.

When I was a teen, I worked a variety of jobs but never at a fast-food joint. No one made much money working at Mickey D’s or Dairy Queen. Now, in California, there’s AB 1228, which replaced the FAST Recovery Act and requires a $20-per-hour minimum wage for fast food workers, among other provisions, to be administered by the Fast Food Council. Is this for real? Moving up the age chain, millennials are finally leaving their parents’ basements and in 2023 received nearly 54 percent of mortgage offers made in most of the country’s largest metros, according to a LendingTree report. Millennials made up the largest share of potential homebuyers in San Jose & San Francisco, CA, and Boston. In San Jose, 65 percent of mortgages in 2023 were offered to millennials. Millennials in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa made up the smallest share of potential buyers, though still substantial. In Las Vegas, 41 percent of mortgage offers in 2023 went to millennials. Offered loan amounts were largest in San Jose, San Francisco, and Los Angeles: $785,391, $731,062, and $627,322, respectively. Conversely, at $242,220, $268,484, and $268,900, average loan amounts offered in Buffalo, Cleveland, and Louisville were the smallest. (Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Lender Toolkit. With Lender Toolkit’s AI-powered AI Underwriter and Prism borrower income automation tools, you’ll be able to get loans approved in under two minutes. Hear an interview with attorney Jay Beitel on Cantero v. Bank of America, the case that challenges New York’s mortgage escrow interest law.)

February wasn’t a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation.  On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analysts pointed out the issue of seasonal distortions that occasionally affects January’s price indices.  As the month’s remaining data sang a somewhat softer tone, this became easier to imagine–or at least to hope for.  While the new week begins without any scheduled econ data, Tuesday brings our first real opportunity to see whether the last CPI was a seasonally distorted outlier, or a warning about unexpectedly persistent inflation.  
The stakes are high–especially with last week’s jobs report having a small net impact.  Yields have arguably leveled off after rallying for more than a week.  Extreme results would allow for extreme movement (anything within 15bps, give or take), but needle-threading is always possible as well.

Regulatory reform – rather than Biden’s proposed solutions – is needed to fix the inventory crisis, some say, but others applauded the president’s buyer cost-cutting initiatives.

Here’s how the former regulator thinks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could exit conservatorship and where he sees the residential market headed this year and next.

Home sellers accuse the corporate giant, which owns HomeServices of America, of making billions of dollars in ill-gotten gains in 2023 alone.