Think you can predict the future? I don’t think so. (Click on that link and think about that caption.) Some foresaw the drop in volume and income after cramming 4-6 years’ worth of production into 2020 & 2021, others were too busy funding loans to make predictions. But things have certainly changed. According to Curinos, March 2024 funded mortgage volume decreased 11 percent YoY but increased 22 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in March 2024 was 6.88, 8bps higher than February 2024 and 58bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures.) (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Loan Vision. With Loan Vision, the mortgage banking industry’s premier mortgage accounting solution, you can take your accounting department from “cost center” to “revenue generator,” operating more efficiently and profitably. Hear an interview with Lereta’s John Walsh on a recent survey that shows nearly half of respondents would be unable to pay their monthly mortgage payment if their escrow accounts increased by 25 percent.) Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Looking for insights to help drive your business strategy? Richey May’s 2023 Interactive HMDA Dashboard is now live! The mortgage industry experts at Richey May have scrubbed the raw 2023 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, offering a window into mortgage origination trends nationwide, and organized it into a dynamic dashboard that allows lenders to drill down on specific markets and companies to aid in strategic business planning. This dashboard allows you to compare your loan characteristics to your peers’ so you can see where you stand. Lenders will also find this dashboard valuable for identifying new markets for expansion, understanding market share trends, seeking out M&A opportunities, measuring the success of sales efforts, and more. Access the dashboard on our website today and reach out to info@richeymay.com with any questions you may have.

A hedge fund-backed newsroom accused the industry giant of overcharging borrowers by hundreds of millions of dollars through “corrupt UWM loyalist” brokers.

If Ocwen shareholders approve, the parent company will first change names in June, followed by PHH and Liberty Reverse at a later date.

The order in the Cenlar loan modification case highlights what courts may look for in qualified written request responses, something other servicers like Specialized Loan Servicing also are contending with in litigation.

Omnichannel mortgage originators were able to grow their market share as singularly focused firms had to retrench, Morningstar DBRS said in a report.

Since the launch of vacant-loan sales, a majority have come from properties located in 10 states, HUD reported.

Carbon Copy Day For MBS

The date and underlying events may have changed, but the price action in MBS was strikingly similar.  Prices fell abruptly in the first 2 hours and then reversed at 10am, ultimately making it back near unchanged levels by the afternoon.  Data played more of a role today with ADP and S&P Global PMI adding to the weakness early.  ISM Services PMI was right in line with the S&P version, but it was very different in terms of price/inflation measurements (lowest price index in 4 years).  Fed Chair Powell helped in the afternoon as he maintained that recent econ data is an acceptable bump on the road to rate cuts.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment 

184k vs 148k f’cast, 155k prev

ISM Services

51.4 vs 52.7 f’cast, 52.6 prev

ISM Employment

48.5 vs 48.0 prev

ISM Prices

53.4 vs 58.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:34 AM Only slightly weaker overnight, but more selling after ADP employment.  10yr up 3.6bps at 4.381.  MBD down 6 ticks (.19).

10:09 AM Additional weakness into ISM data, but bouncing back slightly afterward.  10yr yields are down more than 3bps since the release, but still up 3.6bps on the day at 4.391. MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) instead of 12 ticks (.375) before the data.

12:34 PM Treasuries turning green with 10yr down 0.2 bps at 4.354.  MBS down only 3 ticks (.09).  Powell speech helping.

03:07 PM Best levels of the day with MBS unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.352.

After starting the week with a sharp move higher, mortgage rates managed to avoid losing much ground yesterday.  This was only achieved with a recovery in the bond market that erased early morning losses (rates are based on bonds and when bonds improve, lenders can update mortgage rates during the day). Today was a strikingly similar pattern.  Bonds had a rough morning thanks to the first few economic reports of the day.  Once again, there was a rate-friendly reversal led by the day’s most important economic report at 10am.  In the current case, gains were also facilitated by friendly comments from Fed Chair Powell during a speech early in the afternoon. Even before the bond market reversal, lenders had only increased rates modestly.  After the reversal, many lenders were again able to offer mid-day improvements that brought the average back within a hair of yesterday’s latest levels. From here, Thursday’s economic calendar is less interesting, but Friday’s jobs report is the biggest potential source of volatility in several weeks.

The other night, at the Bruce Springsteen concert in San Francisco (it was great), he did a crowd favorite, singing, “Baby I got my facts learned real good right now, you better get it straight darling: Poor man wanna be rich, rich man wanna be king, and a king ain’t satisfied till he rules everything…” If you want to read a story with words like bullying, harassment, smear, empire, disgusting, and other similar “lyrics,” you can read this tale about Rocket’s Dan Gilbert and UWM’s Mat Ishbia. Not only that, but suddenly everyone is talking about some company called Hunterbrook, not only being tied into a hedge company (which, in theory, can short a stock, publish a negative story later, watch the stock go down, and then cover their shorts and make money) but putting a link into an expletive deleted-filled voice mail from Mat Ishbia to Anthony Casa. As the world turns… more below! Meanwhile, there are constructive things, like today’s L1 show featuring Chris Maloney, Mortgage Strategist with BOK Financial Capital Markets discussing items that impact rates seen by borrowers. (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Loan Vision. With Loan Vision, the mortgage banking industry’s premier mortgage accounting solution, you can take your accounting department from “cost center” to “revenue generator,” operating more efficiently and profitably. Hear an excerpt from last week’s Mortgage Matters show presented by Lenders One with MBA President Bob Broeksmit.) Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software

Bonds remain under pressure this week, but the pressure is turning out to be slightly lower than it was earlier this morning.  Overnight weakness was modest at best, but selling ramped up after the ADP Employment data at 8:15am and again in the 9am hour.  The weakest levels were seen after the 9:45am S&P PMI data.  Both S&P and ISM publish similar PMI data, often on the same day.  ISM is more of a market mover in the U.S. and it told a different story with respect to prices (53.4 vs 58.6 previously).  Bonds approved and have since unwound more than half of the day’s weakness.