In leaving its partnership, Beeline Financial said it disposed of its majority stake in Bridgetown Spirits Corp. in exchange for over $360,000.

Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply

The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday with decent overnight gains, steady buying after economic data, a strong 7-yr auction despite the rally, and additional buying after the 7-yr auction. It was as if every cue was a green light for buyers. This can be rationalized as a combination of decently friendly data and Treasury supply timing. Yesterday’s auctions didn’t benefit from the updated Treasury borrowing estimates.  Also, those buyers weren’t sure how today’s auctions would go. By the time we got to today’s 7-yr, we knew what the quarterly refunding announcement looked like, all the other auctions were out of the way, data was reasonably helpful, and we suspect some early month-end buyers thought the time was right to get what they needed for Thursday. Perfect little storm? Sure, why not? Continuation likely requires more friendly data tomorrow.  Bonds won’t want to take too big a lead-off ahead of NFP Friday without serious justification. 

Econ Data / Events

Wholesale Inventories (m/m)

0.2 vs -0.1 f’cast, -0.3 prev

Case Shiller Home Prices (y/y)

2.8 vs 3.0 f’cast, 3.4 prev

Case Shiller 20-City (m/m)

0.4 vs 0.8 prev

FHFA Home Prices (m/m)

-0.2 vs -0.1 f’cast, -0.3 prev

FHFA Home Prices (y/y)

2.8 vs 3.2 prev

Consumer Confidence

97.2 vs 95.8 f’cast, 95.2 prev

Job Quits (lower is better)

3.142m vs 3.27m prev

Job Openings (lower is better for rates)

7.437m vs 7.55m f’cast, 7.712m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:55 AM modestly stronger overnight with additional gains at 930am NYSE open.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09).  10yr down 3.9bps at 4.374

11:14 AM stronger after data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.351

01:07 PM Additional gains after 7yr auction.  MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 8.2bps at 4.331

03:41 PM heading out at best levels. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 9bps at 4.323

After three straight days at exactly the same level, average 30yr fixed rates began to move lower again on Tuesday. It should immediately be clarified that the word “began” implies a certain likelihood of continuation whereas no such likelihoods can be guaranteed when it comes to the bond/rate market. In other words, rates did indeed begin to move lower again, but they could stop moving lower as early as tomorrow. One slight advantage in the present scenario is that the bond market improved steadily throughout the day and most mortgage lenders didn’t drop their rates as much as the bond market improvement suggested. This means that the average lender could lower rates a bit more tomorrow assuming the underlying bond market stays exactly where it is right now. Bonds could easily move either direction tomorrow morning. In addition to volatility that can occur during overnight/overseas trading, there are several big-ticket economic reports set to be released before mortgage lenders set their rates for the day. Then in the afternoon, the Fed announcement can create additional volatility.  Bottom line: today was good, lenders have a bit of a cushion from afternoon bond market gains, and tomorrow is another potentially volatile day (for better or worse). 

Yesterday, Tampa set a record for its all-time high temperature (at least since man began keeping track, for you sticklers) while rain caused flooding in Reno, NV. It’s good to own an HVAC company. The people there and throughout much of the nation can use some… ice. For ice news of a different type, LOs took note when ICE Mortgage Technology estimated that, heading into the second quarter of 2025, U.S. mortgage borrowers held $11.5 trillion in “tappable” home equity, or equity available for borrowing while maintaining at least a 20 percent cushion. Forty percent of applications are for refis, per the MBA, so owners are certainly tapping into it. And the inventory of homes available for sale has increased. Of course, people don’t want more neighbors, more traffic, more congestion, more kids in the schools, more strain on the water system. The construction industry never fully recovered from the 2008 recession: fewer homes were built in the U.S. in the following ten years than in any decade since the 1960s, even as the population continued to grow. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products – nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics – unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with RatePlug’s Brad and Jeff Springer on how the home property search process is evolving to include accurate, real-time home affordability information.)

There’s no mistaking the fact that bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range in the bigger picture, nor could anyone claim that today’s trading does anything to change that fact.  But for those who will take every little victory they can get, the day is off to a good start.  Bonds were initially flat in the overnight session, but began improving a few hours before U.S. trading opened. The 10am econ data was the focus and essentially none of it was unfriendly. Job openings were slightly lower as were job “quits” (fewer people quitting = economically negative and thus a net positive for rates). In a separate labor market indicator inside the Consumer Confidence data, the gap between those who see jobs as plentiful vs scarce fell to another multi-year low.  While that so-called “labor differential” is still in 2017 territory (which wasn’t a bad year by any means), the trend is friendly for rates.

As high interest rates make refinancing impossible for many homeowners, increasing numbers of them are turning to HELOCs and home equity loans for cash.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency approached Habib regarding becoming a member of the Fannie Mae board of directors, with the appointment effective July 21.

The company was looking to get back into compliance on Nasdaq, but the recent run-up in its stock price has management hitting the pause button.

Allowing the same three companies to control both credit scoring and credit reporting removes one significant check on manipulation or distortion of consumer data, writes the Director of Consumer Reporting and Data Advocacy at the National Consumer Law Center.

Rithm Capital said it is focused on optimizing Newrez’s potential to support the full business, pointing to opportunities in servicing and non-agency lending.