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After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in place by yesterday’s close, but yields dropped another 2bps after war-related headlines just after 8am (US general said Iran’s attacks yesterday were below the threshold for war). Oil prices and bond yields continue the same old correlation. 

Coming up at 10am ET, we’ll get 2 economic reports that have historically been capable market movers: Job Openings and ISM Services. We’ve seen some evidence that the market is still willing to react to data if it’s far enough from expectations, but that risk is a bit asymmetric at present. Reason being: investors are waiting for economic weakness to show up due to high fuel prices. So it doesn’t take as much of an upside surprise in the data to cause bond market weakness. Conversely, if data is slightly weaker than expected, that would be less of a surprise to most investors and thus not as much of a benefit to bonds.

The promotion offers rate cuts as much as 25 basis points on new-home purchases as well as rate-and-term and cash-out refinance loans from May 4 through May 17.

“In looking at eight currently available proprietary RM products, there is a distinct relationship between HECM growth rates and proprietary product availability,” Reverse Market Insight said.

The top bullet point in Two Harbors’ rejection notice is the Mizuho credit facility does not constitute committed financing for UWM to pay for the deal.

The combination adds to a wave of broader merger and acquisition activity that includes an ongoing bidding war over RoundPoint Mortgage owner Two Harbors

The litigants, with some of the industry’s deepest pockets, may be filing the rare cases to flag and potentially punish bad brokers, one expert said.

Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines

Monday’s trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpleasant. Bonds lost ground somewhat sharply as war-related headlines kept adding up to additional escalation. Highlights include overnight reports of Iran hitting a U.S. warship with missiles, multiple reports of UAE air defenses being activated, and damage/fire at a UAE oil export terminal. While bonds had a few moments of independence, they were broadly driven by rising oil prices associated with the aforementioned headlines.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr)

46.4 vs 49 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

52.7 vs 53 f’cast, 52.7 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Apr)

84.6 vs 80 f’cast, 78.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:20 AM moderately weaker overnight. 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.41 and MBS down 7 ticks (.22).

11:31 AM Weakest levels after headlines regarding Iran attacking UAE. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 6bps at 4.435

02:23 PM sideways just off weakest levels. MBS down half a point and 10yr up 7.1bps at 4.447

Mordor Intelligence expects the manufactured homes market size to expand from $28.5 billion in 2025 to $30.5 billion this year, its latest report found.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s support for the market lessened the impact, as could bank capital reform, and the company’s normalized results outperformed.