On average, today’s top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday’s. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there’s a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.  

The U.S. Census Bureau released a downloadable file containing estimates of the nation’s resident population by single year of age and sex as of July 1, 2025. Nationwide lenders are always analyzing branch locations and market share. America’s post-pandemic relocation surge is losing momentum, with interstate migration falling to a decade low as once-booming Sun Belt markets like Texas and Florida face declining inflows amid sharply reduced affordability. The motivations behind moving are shifting away from jobs and cost savings toward proximity to family, signaling a more cautious and less opportunistic consumer mindset. New migration patterns are emerging: more affordable Midwest states are regaining appeal, Nevada is surging due to its relative value compared to California, and smaller or less obvious destinations like Vermont and New Hampshire are attracting highly educated, homebuying newcomers seeking stability and lifestyle. Gen Z has become the most mobile generation, driving moves based on flexibility and opportunity. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Truework. Replace costly, error-prone verification waterfalls with a single, fully automated VOIE solution that delivers faster, more accurate, GSE-ready reports. So, your team can close more loans with less effort and lower cost. Today’s has an interview with Berger Singerman’s Geoffrey Lottenberg on navigating the legal implications of AI in mortgage and lending processes.)

Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments is likely helping. While there are plenty of isolated headlines, the only thing the market really cares about is the timeline for the war to be over. As such, the present ceasefire is a sort of limbo that’s clearly better than peak tension in late March, but not an “all clear” to jump back in the market (unless it’s the stock market, apparently). There are a few economic reports this morning, but no market reaction.

Dozens of plaintiffs say they still haven’t received a full explanation over the mass termination announced last April by FHFA Director Bill Pulte.

Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought told the House Budget Committee Wednesday that the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund is still a target for elimination by the administration because it promotes “woke” ideology.

Marketing services firm LeadPoint said it thought it had gained compliance after Connecticut officials issued a prior consent order and penalty in 2020.

FundingShield’s latest report notes the improvement in remediation efforts among lenders, but closing protection lenders remain a key source of file problems.

President Donald Trump said he would fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he does not resign after his term as head of the central bank ends in May. Trump made a similar threat against Fed Gov. Lisa Cook before attempting to fire her last August.

Very Small Token Pull-Back

Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yields were technically a few bps higher thus preserving the phenomenon of rally momentum being limited to 48-hour windows since the start of the Iran war. Despite a barrage of war-related headlines, there was remarkably light volatility in oil prices. Markets seem to be waiting on truly momentous developments (such as a major resumption of hostilities or a confirmed/permanent ceasefire). In the meantime, stocks and bonds both did their own thing today without any of the recently typical correlation to oil prices.

Econ Data / Events

Import prices mm (Mar)

0.8% vs 2% f’cast, 1.3% prev

NY Fed Manufacturing (Apr)

11.00 vs -0.5 f’cast, -0.20 prev

NAHB Builder Confidence

34 vs 37 f’cast, 38 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:46 AM Modestly weaker overnight, partly following oil.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.268

12:55 PM Weaker into the noon hour, but stabilizing now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.284

02:34 PM little-changed since last update. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.281

On Tuesday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit the lowest level in exactly 4 weeks. If you’re not interested in splitting hairs, today’s rates are essentially the same. Although our official average is 0.01% higher, that’s such a small change that many of today’s rate quotes will look the same as yesterday’s.  In the bigger picture, these rates are about halfway between the highs seen in late March and the lowest rates in more than 3 years seen at the end of February. The bond market (which dictates rates) remains focused on developments in the Iran war, but there’s an ever-higher bar for relevant news. At this point the average war update is not having a noticeable impact. It will take a material change in the status of the war and a clear response in energy prices to catch the bond market’s attention.