The two days of 2025 with the lowest rates were September 16th and October 28th. Both days happened to be the Tuesdays that preceded Fed rate cuts. On both occasions, those rate cuts were delivered with other comments from the Fed that the bond market didn’t like.  The net effect is/was two very obvious dips and spikes. The second half of December saw the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate inch closer and closer to those previous lows, but we’re still not quite there yet. Today was just another day in that saga as the average lender held right in line with Friday’s latest levels. Bottom line: at current levels, any day that rates spend holding steady or moving microscopically lower will technically result in the lowest rates since October 28th. It would take a more noticeable improvement to break below that floor. When and if that happens, rates will be the lowest since early 2023. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

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By 10am ET, today’s trading volume has already surpassed that seen on December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)–proof positive that the market is shifting out of holiday mode. Over the past 3 weeks, bonds did a perfect job of holding inside the forgettable sideways range marked by 4.10-4.20 in 10yr yields. A breakout on either side of that range becomes a stronger possibility this week thanks not only to increased participation, but most importantly due to Friday’s jobs report. There are other relevant reports between now and then with Wednesday morning’s JOLTS/ISM combo being the most notable. Today’s ISM Manufacturing was slightly weaker but hasn’t had a big impact so far. Lastly, for those curious, both stocks and bonds have completely shrugged off the weekend’s news on Venezuela. 

Brinton joins the mortgage industry trade group after previously holding accounting leadership positions at a range of business organizations and nonprofits.

Mamdani issued several other orders, including one that created a new office devoted to community engagement and three that concern housing and real estate.

The number of remodeling establishments hit at a record high earlier this decade and now accounts for over 60% of home construction-related businesses.

The government-sponsored enterprise is under fire from dozens of the more than 100 workers it fired last spring for allegedly committing fraud.

A definitive move could occur as early as fiscal year 2026 or take until 2033, depending on what the government is willing to do, according to one analyst.

Modest Incidental Weakness

Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winter holiday season without even attempting to break outside the narrow prevailing range. This is especially true for shorter duration Treasuries and MBS. It has been and continues to be the case that we won’t get a sense of the next wave of momentum until next week at the earliest. It could take even longer if the econ data fails to make a compelling case for better or worse.

Econ Data / Events

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

51.8 vs 51.8 f’cast, 52.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:35 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.165

01:29 PM weakest levels of the day.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.186

Heading into the week, we knew there was a high bar for any legitimate mortgage rate fireworks. In addition to a dearth of scheduled events with the power to cause volatility, the last two weeks of the year don’t tend to see big changes in the bond market.  There are exceptions, but 2025 wasn’t one of them. In fact, bond yields and mortgage rates have been locked in a narrow, sideways range since September as the market waits for the most important economic reports to hit their stride again after being hobbled by the government shutdown. Yes, the big-ticket reports were already released on December, but the market expects them to be gradually more representative in the coming months. Next week brings several of these reports including Friday’s jobs report–arguably the most important on any given month. With this data, we should see the return of more directional volatility in the rate market. The direction will depend on whether the data is stronger or weaker than expected. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]