The artificial intelligence-based technology automates manual processes associated with the financing, including draws, for homes under construction.

The lender claims an originator ambushed executives in a negotiation with the confidential company financials and claimed to have shared them with competitors.

Surprisingly Light Volatility

Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday’s jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and energy prices. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

62k vs 40k f’cast, 63k prev

Retail Sales

0.6 vs 0.5 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Core Retail Sales

0.5 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev

ISM Manufacturing

52.7 vs 52.5 f’cast

ISM Prices Paid

78.3 vs 73.0 f’cast, 70.5 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:24 AM slightly stronger overnight with a bit of selling after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.301

08:38 AM Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317

11:04 AM Recovering some ground now. No particular reason. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.301

01:43 PM MBS up about an eighth and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.313

03:23 PM MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.33

The increase in 10-year yields this month has had the effect of arresting what had been an encouraging decline in US mortgage rates for lenders.

While San Francisco had the biggest improvement in affordability for prices today versus 2019, Hartford remains in a very deep freeze, First American said.

The real estate fintech touted Doma’s role in Fannie Mae’s title-acceptance pilot as key to the deal, which follows Opendoor’s recent mortgage product rollout.

Home prices increased 0.9% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month in January, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national home price index.

A federal judge granted the interview request for a brokerage accused of violating the megalender’s restriction on selling loans to wholesale competitors.

Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion

Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid–sometimes puzzling–gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran–something that’s easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct turning point in the war.

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jan)

1.2% vs 1.3% f’cast, 1.4% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Jan)

-0.1% vs — f’cast, -0.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jan)

0.1% vs 0.1% f’cast, 0.1% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Jan)

1.6% vs — f’cast, 1.8% prev

Job Openings

6.882m vs 6.92m f’cast, 7.24m prev

Job Quits (lower = better for bonds)

2.974m vs 3.100m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:18 AM Moderately stronger overnight. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 5bps at 4.302

12:50 PM Near best levels with MBS up more than 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.298

01:53 PM MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.31

04:12 PM Off the best levels after quarter-end rebalancing trades. MBS up only 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down only 3 bps at 4.322

Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war.  Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were “ready to end the war.” The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting “certain guarantees.”  They also came from Iran’s President and not the Supreme Leader. Still, stocks, bonds, and oil prices all responded. The bond market response involved additional improvement. As bonds improve, rates move lower.  The net effect for mortgage rates was a move back below 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender. This marks the best 2 days of improvement since the war began, but the caveat is that the larger movements are often seen after rates hit longer-term highs.