Modest Gains After Opening Weaker

Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which  continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can’t tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to geopolitical developments. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

39.25K vs — f’cast, 54.75K prev

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Feb)

0.9% vs 1.1% f’cast, 1.2% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Feb)

0.4% vs — f’cast, -0.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Feb)

0.0% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.1% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Feb)

1.7% vs — f’cast, 1.6% prev

Consumer Confidence

92.8 vs 89.0 f’cast, 92.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:14 AM Modestly weaker overnight. 10yr up 2bps at 4.362 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

11:07 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359

02:29 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.357. No reaction to 7 year auction