Eleven defendants face fraud and money laundering charges in a California case involving elderly homeowners and private lenders, prosecutors said.

The new executive order could add lender competition for self-employed borrowers, potentially via a small loan carveout and one for portfolio products.

There were an estimated 630,000, or 46.3%, more home sellers than buyers in the United States in February, according to a Redfin report.

United Wholesale Mortgage is offering revised terms. The mortgage real-estate investment trust that owns RoundPoint also received a third offer it’s considering.

The FHFA’s ACV condo insurance rollback gets the balance right between affordability and safety, even if politics muddied the waters, the chairman of Whalen Global Advisors writes.

Mortgage rates are dictated by bonds and bonds had a volatile day. During overnight trading hours, bonds suggested we should brace for the impact of even higher rates. Things changed just after 7am ET following headlines that suggested progress on the Iran war.  Although volatility continued in the ensuing hours, bonds ultimately settled in stronger territory (which is good for rates).  After ending last week above 6.5% for the first time since early September, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 6.49% today. While it’s a step in the right direction, it would take a much bigger improvement sustained over the course of several days (or even weeks) to mark a bigger picture turning point.

Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines

Don’t worry about what actually happened, who actually spoke to whom, and the details of the conversations that may or may not have happened. Today’s simplest fact is that the President said things that can be filed under the heading of “de-escalation” of the Iran war and markets were obviously and immediately willing to respond. It’s the response that’s encouraging-regardless of the details. By no means does this constitute the big shift we’re waiting for, but it at least suggests such a shift will be possible when the war is truly over. 

Econ Data / Events

Construction Spending

-0.2 vs 0.1 f’cast, 0.8 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:09 AM Weaker overnight then sharply stronger just after 7am on “war might end” headlines. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.366 after being as high as 4.442 just before 7am.

10:36 AM Additional gains on additional Iran negotiation headlines. MBS up nearly 3/8ths and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.345

12:49 PM Well off highs. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10yr down only 1.8bps at 4.365

03:09 PM Nice recovery. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.328

Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated “talks” between the US and Iran, and a 5 day ceasefire of sorts. Yields and oil plunged instantly. Stocks rallied. The 10yr dipped as low as 4.308% before bouncing. The bounce coincided with reports that there were no talks, but yet other newswires suggested those talks happened through intermediaries and not directly with Iran. Either way, the 5 day moratorium on US strikes in Iran is worth something to the market.

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As rising energy prices and growing inflation fears make corporate bonds look increasingly risky, big money managers including State Street and Voya Investment Management have been looking at buying mortgage bonds and other securitized debt instead.