Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?

Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines

The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do with escalation risks (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait allowing U.S. forces to operate from their bases, explosions heard in Southern Iran). All told, 10yr yields were up more than 4bps by 3pm and MBS were down a quarter point.

Econ Data / Events

Challenger layoffs (Apr)

83.387K vs — f’cast, 60.62K prev

Continued Claims (Apr)/25

1,766K vs 1800K f’cast, 1785K prev

Jobless Claims (May)/02

200K vs 205K f’cast, 189K prev

Unit Labor Costs QoQ FinalQ1

2.3% vs 2.6% f’cast, 4.4% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:32 AM stronger overnight and no reaction to econ data. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.331

11:31 AM moving into weaker territory now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.361

01:13 PM New lows for MBS, down 5 ticks (.16) on the day. 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.38

03:00 PM MBS at new lows, down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.39

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Mortgage Rates Erase Early Improvement

The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S.  When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a “one and done” strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more than enough just before the noon hour. Most lenders were forced to recall their initial rate offerings and make upward adjustments. The net effect at the time of printing is that the average lender is back in line with yesterday’s levels. 

More Peace Deal Hope, More Overnight Gains

Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious catalyst just before 3am with a WSJ report that the U.S. provided Iran a detailed framework to end the war. The line item that caught the market’s attention was a change in the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Previously, it was permanent, but the new framework calls for 20 years. 10yr yields rallied several bps on the news and oil prices moved down about 4 dollars. There hasn’t been much volatility in bonds since then with 8:30am data proving to be a non-event.