AI Automation, U/W, CRM, Agency CEO Pay Cap; UAD 3.6 Update; Economic Jitters

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Mortgage Rates Unchanged Ahead of Important Inflation Data

Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday’s levels for the average lender. This wasn’t a huge surprise considering the absence of any high stakes economic data, but tomorrow could be a different story. Rates are driven by bonds and the economy is one of the primary sources of motivation for the bond market. In general, the two reports that get more of the bond market’s attention than any others are the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  The jobs report obviously pertains to the labor market. This is the report that came out yesterday and although it didn’t cause a big move in rates, bond volume was nonetheless at its highest levels since the last jobs report on November 20th.  CPI pertains to inflation. Recent Fed speeches have expressed slightly more concern over inflation’s impact on the rate outlook.  Longer term rates (like mortgages) also take cues from inflation. If CPI is higher than expected, it tends to put upward pressure on rates and vice versa. This will be the first CPI report since the government shutdown (the last report came out on 10/24/25) which makes it all the more likely that rates will react to any major departure from expectations.

Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday’s CPI

Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday’s CPI

Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bonds mostly sideways and well within the recent trading range. This isn’t hard to believe given the absence of any relevant market movers. Thursday could be different thanks to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of those reports that has occasionally swung for the fences, but that can also have almost no impact. The present example could receive a bit more focus than normal as it will be the first time we’ve seen this data since October 24th. In addition, recent Fed speeches have reintroduced inflation concerns as a reason to be patient when it comes to additional rate cuts. None of this guarantees fireworks, but at the very least, it’s the last potential source of fireworks this year as far as econ data is concerned. 

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.167

10:42 AM Back near unchanged levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 0.3 bps at 4.144

02:39 PM Bouncing back a bit. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.148

Quiet Calendar Ahead of Thursday’s CPI

Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025’s relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday’s CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade big ticket econ data until the early January jobs report. CPI has stepped in to fill the shoes that yesterday’s jobs report was apparently unable to fill. Specifically, it will round out the first half of the Fed’s next round of rate cut deliberations in late January. As a placeholder, today’s trading is meaningless if yields remain under 4.20 and above 4.10.  With a modest morning recovery bringing yields to 4.10.