Foreclosure auctions available jumped on both a quarterly and yearly basis, but the sales rate did not move in tandem, according to a new report.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is recommending the option for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers with strong credit with a tri-merge for others. Here’s why.

The 30-year fixed is still over 20 basis points higher than its February bottom, but fell 7 basis points this past week on Iran peace hopes, Freddie Mac said.

More than a third of sellers have mortgage rates below 5%, yet still plan to list their homes this spring, according to a survey from Coldwell Banker.

An uptick in problem loans within the heavily scrutinized office sector pushed down share prices at Rhode Island-based Washington Trust and Bank OZK in Little Rock, Arkansas, even though both banks reported solid profits.

Thursday saw a continuation of the recent trend of very low volatility for mortgage rates. The average lender’s top-tier 30yr fixed rates were perfectly unchanged from yesterday and in the same narrow range as the past 7 business days (6.29-6.33%).  Despite the uneventful outcome, there was some underlying market volatility mid-day following a series of war-related headlines. The news involved the status of Iran’s negotiation team as well as potential indications of air strikes in Iran. The market reacted swiftly (a resumption of hostilities would push rates/oil higher and stocks lower), but several of the headlines were subsequently retracted/clarified and the overall market reaction ended up being relatively small. A handful of mortgage lenders responded to the market movement and increased rates. Bonds (which dictate rates) remain a bit worse off compared to this morning, so if there’s not a bond market rebound by tomorrow morning, other lenders could make similar adjustments.

Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality

It’s not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorrect or misconstrued headlines is growing larger as the Iran war persists. It makes sense considering the current lull in both military and diplomatic developments. People who write and profit from breaking newswires are eager to cash in on clicks and dollars. Around 1pm ET today, several newswires created obvious volatility for bonds/oil/stocks. These involved an apparent resignation of a key Iranian official from the negotiations team and the implication that Tehran’s activated air defenses meant a breach of the ceasefire. Both were refuted. Markets corrected slightly, but a certain amount of damage was done (also, markets may not believe the refutations). The net impact on bonds remained small with 10s only up a few bps and MBS down just over an eighth of a point.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Apr)/11

1,821K vs 1820K f’cast, 1818K prev

Jobless Claims (Apr)/18

214K vs 212K f’cast, 207K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:34 AM A hair stronger after being flat overnight. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields are up nearly 1bp at 4.295

11:54 AM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.298

01:43 PM Weakest levels. MBS down nearly a quarter point and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.349

02:31 PM Bouncing back a bit as previous headlines have been mostly retracted. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.313

After over 40 years in this industry and capital markets, I’ve learned that the best conversations are… with people. For example, a flyer could have been sent out yesterday instead of having a press conference to cover the VantageScore & FICO 10T news, but they chose to talk about it rather than tweet it. People! Next month, we’re putting some of them on camera regularly. Four new shows are coming to the Chrisman network, covering the biggest topics in mortgage right now with the Capital Markets Wrap moving to Wednesdays. Registration is open for these live, monthly, and free shows: The AI Show (a monthly panel on AI in mortgage… What’s working, what’s coming, and what you need to know, first episode May 6 sponsored by JazzXai), Credit Committee (bureau leaders, credit strategists, and data experts on camera together talking about what’s changing in credit, first episode May 20 and sponsored by Equifax), Recapture Wars (the recapture fight in mortgage servicing… Who’s winning, who’s losing, and what the smartest shops are doing differently, first episode May 27), and The Hill: A Marketing Show (starting Tuesday, May 12, one thesis per episode about mortgage marketing, one guest in the room to prove it or fight it, one hill worth dying on… the first editorial podcast in mortgage, hosted by Bri Lees). (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian Verify, a comprehensive income and employment verification solution for mortgage lenders. By uniting instant payroll data, permissioned access, and research verification in one seamless experience, Experian Verify helps lenders reduce friction, accelerate decisions, and confidently verify every U.S. worker. Today’s has an interview with Paddington Capital Management’s Paul Musson on how policymakers are repeatedly propping up asset prices at the expense of long-term economic health and fairness.)

Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recovery occurred after headlines said US/Iran negotiations could make a breakthrough according to an Iranian diplomatic source. Social media quickly dubbed the news as “fake,” but a legitimate version exists on ria.ru’s website. So the news wasn’t fake, it was just really really vague and toothless. Even so, bonds reacted to the tune of about 2bps and have been in a choppy, narrow range since then.

Credit risk transfers, a means by which banks can move risk off their balance sheets, earned considerable bipartisan support in a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing Wednesday.