Mortgage Rates Move Back Above 6.5%

After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today–the highest they’ve been since September 3rd, 2025.  The entire month of March has been painful for many corners of the financial market and mortgage rates are not immune. The Iran war is the underlying catalyst as surging fuel costs force global central banks to rapidly reassess inflation expectations and the policy rate outlook. As we’re fond of repeating, an actual hike/cut of the Fed Funds Rate is of no concern to mortgage rates by the time it actually happens. But if Fed hike/cut  expectations are changing rapidly, mortgage rates will almost always be changing rapidly in the same direction.  That’s what’s happening this week–not just for the Fed, but also for the European Central Bank and others. The globally-coordinated hawkishness on the rate outlook causes additional volatility in the rate market for a variety of reasons. Investors increasingly believe that there is additional pain that needs to play out even if the war were to end today. That doesn’t mean rates can’t bounce for a day or two, but it does mean sustained improvement back to February’s levels is highly unlikely in the near term.

Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode

Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode

Around here, “reprice” typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mortgage lenders, but infrequently, a big picture repricing occurs in the bond market. That’s what’s going on in March and especially over the last 2.5 days. Wednesday’s Fed comments and Thursday’s ECB/BOE comments confirmed that there’s a floor under short term rates for a vast majority of the planet’s reserve currency holdings, AND that hikes are quickly replacing cuts as the next likely move (September Fed meeting went from 0% hike chance to more than 25% in less than 2 days). Trading and investment strategies of a majority of the world’s investible capital was positioned for an entirely different reality before the Iran war. Now it is repositioning… repricing for new realities. 

Market Movement Recap

09:46 AM Sharply weaker overnight with additional selling all morning. MBS down over half a point and 10yr up 7.8bps at 4.327.

01:37 PM MBS down half a point and 10yr up 11.4bps at 4.364

Reality Check For Refi Demand

NOTE: the rates discussed in this article are from MBA’s weekly survey and pertain to last week.  This week’s rates have already moved significantly higher according to our daily data. Mortgage application activity fell sharply last week as rising rates weighed on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 13. The decline was driven primarily by refinance activity. The Refinance Index dropped 19% from the previous week, though it remained 69% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that conventional refinance applications saw the steepest pullback, as rates moved notably higher over the past two weeks. Purchase demand proved more resilient. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier and was 12% higher than the same week one year ago. Gains in FHA and VA purchase activity helped offset flat conventional demand, with improving inventory and slower home price growth continuing to support year-over-year strength. According to Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, mortgage rates moved higher alongside Treasury yields, driven in part by elevated oil prices and broader inflation concerns tied to geopolitical developments. The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to its highest level since December 2025.