Token Year-End Volatility

Token Year-End Volatility

Wednesday’s shortened session offered more excitement than the first two days of the week. There was a modicum of legitimate data-driven selling this morning in response to the jobless claims data. Bonds had trudged most of the way back toward unchanged levels by 1pm ET, but volatility picked up again at that point. While 2pm is the official early close, 1pm is the cut-off for many of the largest traders to close out their year-end positions. This makes for a big spike in volume at that time, and it can also result in a quick jolt to prices/yields.  As far as year-end jolts go, today’s was pretty normal and should not be taken as a sign of any underlying predisposition in the market. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Dec)/20

1,866K vs — f’cast, 1923K prev

Jobless Claims (Dec)/27

199K vs 220K f’cast, 214K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:34 AM losing ground after claims data.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.144

12:11 PM pushing back from weaker levels. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.138

01:09 PM Some quick year-end selling pressure. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.158

Pricing Products; Non-Agency Changes; NAMB Interview on the Broker Biz; Happy New Year

Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software “At Optimal Blue, we’d like to take a moment to say THANK YOU to the incredible clients and partners who made this year unforgettable. Your trust and collaboration fuel our mission to deliver solutions that tackle the real-world challenges mortgage lenders face every day. As we look ahead, we’re excited to keep innovating and driving success together. And speaking of what’s next, don’t miss Optimal Blue Summit 2026 this February in Scottsdale! It’s your chance to connect, learn, and preview a slate of new innovations from Optimal Blue that will help you dominate the year ahead. Secure your discounted ticket now with code CHRISMAN at Summit.OptimalBlue.com. From all of us at Optimal Blue, we wish you a joyful holiday season and a prosperous new year. Here’s to making 2026 your best year yet: see you at the Summit!” In an open letter reflecting on a landmark 2025, Polly Founder and CEO Adam Carmel shares a powerful message of gratitude and strategic evolution. The company has spent the past year leading the market in enterprise innovation and Generative AI, continuing to demonstrate that the era of stagnant, legacy tech is over. This is more than a milestone report; it’s a call to action for an industry at a crossroads. Carmel reflects on the profound impact and shared success achieved alongside Polly’s customer partners and looks ahead to a 2026 centered on intentional innovation and new product frontiers. Whether you’re a long-time partner or industry observer, this letter offers a transparent look at the future of capital markets technology. Read the full open letter to explore Polly’s 2025 milestones and their bold vision for the year ahead.

Mortgage Rates Staying Steady to Close Out 2025

Although Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey (released today) suggested the lowest rates since October 2024, our daily numbers offer a bit more nuance. To be sure, October 28th and September 16th both saw distinctly lower rates this year.   Today’s rates are right in line with yesterday’s as well as last Friday’s.  In other words, this week is flat compared to Friday although the average rate is lower so far. The bond market closes early today and will be fully closed tomorrow. Bonds reopen on Friday and then will be fully open for a normal week of trading next week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

A Bit of Actual Data-Driven Selling Thanks to Jobless Claims and Wonky Seasonal Adjustments

Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today’s half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print.  Robots are also not smart enough to know that the sub-200k print is likely distorted…