MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data

MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data

There’s no question that this morning’s PPI data hit the bond market. The volume spike was easily higher than that seen with yesterday’s CPI and the market movement left nothing to the imagination. In the big picture, a few bps of weakness in bond yields isn’t that alarming, but if we consider PPI isn’t usually a big deal and that yields were already pushing recent highs, things begin looking more meaningful. Despite the initial reaction, bonds found their footing after 11:30am. 10yr yields made it almost all the way back to pre-data levels and MBS fared even better–ultimately turning green around 2pm. 

Econ Data / Events

Core PPI m/m (Apr)

1.0% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.1% prev

Core PPI y/y (Apr)

5.2% vs 4.3% f’cast, 3.8% prev

PPI m/m (Apr)

1.4% vs 0.5% f’cast, 0.5% prev

PPI y/y (Apr)

6.0% vs 4.9% f’cast, 4% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:38 AM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.484

11:39 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3bps at 4.483

02:16 PM Nice bounce for MBS, now back to + 1 tick (.03) on the day. 10yr still up 2.7bps at 4.48

PPI Hit Even Harder Than CPI, But Damage is Minimal

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionally, it swings for the fences. Today’s release is a clear example with the monthly headline coming in at 1.5 vs 0.5 forecast. In annual terms, headline inflation is a whopping 6.0% versus a 4.9% forecast–up sharply from last month’s 4.3% (itself upwardly revised from 4.0%). This is easily the most onerous spike since the pandemic. Even though PPI hit the market harder than CPI, that’s not saying much. Bonds are only 2bps weaker at 10am ET–a testament to how little this data tends to matter.

AI, CRM, Verification, DSCR, HELOC Products; Gov’t Programs; Rates and Inflation, Borrower Psychology

The April FOMC Meeting concluded with the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged, and it was the last under Jerome Powell’s chairmanship. Chair Powell is the first Fed Chairman to step down and remain on the Board since 1948 due to a) the Federal investigation regarding the cost of renovating the Fed’s Headquarters, and b) he probably wants to have a voice in keeping the Fed independent from presidents. Kevin Warsh is slated to be the next Fed Chairman, taking the helm on May 15th, and at this point most expect no changes from Fed policy until 2027. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by nCino, and its Mortgage Suite that supports a modern homeownership journey. This week at nSight 2026, mortgage leaders will explore how AI, intelligent automation, and connected experiences are reshaping lending operations and borrower engagement. Hear an interview with nCino’s Chris Gufford on how AI is moving beyond hype to deliver measurable gains in mortgage operations, borrower experience, and loan officer productivity, while reshaping how forward-looking lenders reengineer their processes for the next phase of industry transformation.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services A tailored suit fits because it was designed for you, not handed to you off the rack. Floify takes the same approach to the mortgage POS: configurable to how you actually lend, so LOs do more with less because the intelligence is already inside. Your loan types? Configured without code, no dev queue, no vendor delay. Built in. Your borrower data? Extracted, validated and pre-filled before an LO ever touches the file. Built in. Your workflows? Moving loans forward automatically, no manual nudges required. Built in. The result is an 84 percent increase in efficiency and loans reach clear-to-close 7.5 days faster across any loan type your team can dream up. Is your POS tailored for you, or are you the one making alterations to fit it? See it live. Your way. Built in. Ready when you are.

Mortgage Rates Officially at 6 Week Highs

Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They’re just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs.  Whereas yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn’t have an obviously negative impact on rates, today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning. Even then, the underlying bond market wasn’t too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery. But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today. That left our rate index 0.01% higher day over day at 6.57% for a top tier 30yr fixed. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]