The anti-evasion exception introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic provided servicing flexibility to help borrowers struggling for many reasons, ABA said.

The closed meeting between the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Treasury, and the Securities and Exchange Commission is the first since 2017.

Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. Today’s average rate fell 0.03 after moving up 0.06 since June 12th. This morning’s most relevant potential influence–the Retail Sales report–turned out to have a limited impact this morning.  To be fair, when rates are as stable as they have been, there’s no need to overanalyze their underlying motivations.  For those determined to do it anyway, today’s best example may have been general market anxiety surrounding war in the Middle East. We have yet to see any huge market reaction in response to any of the geopolitical headlines, but there was a reaction that played out over the course of several hours that helped the bond market gain some ground. When bonds improve, mortgage lenders are able to offer lower rates.  Tomorrow’s Fed announcement adds to the potential volatility in a more serious way.  This has nothing to do with “cut vs no cut” (there is zero chance of a rate cut tomorrow) and everything to do with the other information the Fed presents on announcement days. Of this info, it is the dot plot (a chart in the Fed’s economic projection materials that show each Fed members’ rate outlook over the next few years) that carries the most weight.  Caveat: POTENTIAL volatility is just that.  Sometimes Fed announcement days end up leaving rates fairly unchanged.  There’s no way to now which way things will move ahead of time, only that the risk is higher than normal.

Dot Plot in Focus With Fed’s “No Cut” Announcement

Bonds lost some ground after this morning’s economic data, arguably in response to the Retail Sales control group beating its forecast.  Higher-than-expected import prices could also have played a supporting role, but the selling was too modest to worry about perfectly allocating the blame.  It was also erased by an afternoon rally that was best explained by general risk-off vibes surrounding geopolitical headlines.  Here too, we’re not seeing anything too compelling in terms of trading justification.  The best bet on that front would be Wednesday’s dot plot from the Fed (the chart showing each Fed member’s rate outlook over the next few years).  That will be released at 2pm with the “no cut” announcement.

Econ Data / Events

Retail Sales

-0.3 vs 0.1 f’cast, 0.0 prev

Core Retail Sales

0.4 vs 0.3 f’cast, -0.1 prev

Export Prices

-0.9 vs -0.7 f’cast, 0.1 prev

Import Prices

0.0 vs -0.2 f’cast, 0.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:09 AM Stronger overnight, flat after data, and losing some ground now.  MBS still an eighth higher on the day and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.417

01:53 PM Best levels of the day now on Middle East newswires.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 6.5bps at 4.386

Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons.  Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow, sideways range.  Until that changes, a moderate rally following 2 days of weakness is the least surprising outcome. But that was before the AM data, which featured Retail Sales at -0.9 vs =0.8 f’cast.  One would think that’s worth more bond buying, but the control group (retail sales excluding autos/gas/building materials) rose to 0.4 vs 0.3 and had a small positive upward revision to last month. We’ve seen the control group set the tone on several occasions regardless of the headline.  With bonds losing some ground after the data, today seems like yet another example. 

In Spain, Spaniards are shooting water pistols at foreigners to protest the impact of mass tourism: it has created a housing crunch. Tourism in the United States is down considerably, especially from Canada, impacting the economy here on Oahu and in other locations. But in the U.S. the inventory of properties for sale is increasing, and the market has turned for buyers at the expense of sellers. New listings rose 5.2 percent YOY, active inventory is up almost 28 percent year-over-year, days on the market have increased by 6 days, but home prices are essentially flat. Sellers at the lower end aren’t budging… yet. At the higher end, LOs tell me that the market feels “heavy.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an interview with SALT Lending’s Shawn Owen on how digital assets like Bitcoin are reshaping mortgage lending, from collateral risk and fraud prevention to construction financing, regulatory hurdles, and the future of tokenized mortgage markets.) Products, Software, and Services for Brokers and Lenders “Is your loan servicing operation overwhelmed by fragmented and manual processes, inconsistent action handling, or compliance blind spots? In our latest blog, ‘From Chaos to Clarity: How Workflow Transforms Loan Servicing Operations,’ we explore how intelligent automation can help you streamline and automate complexity, improve compliance, and respond faster to borrower needs. Discover six powerful ways workflow enhances standardization, efficiency, visibility, accountability, data use, and the user experience—each brought to life through real-world servicing scenarios. Learn how organizations like yours are eliminating manual errors, accelerating response times, and simplifying complex decisioning with intelligent workflow automation. If you’re looking to reduce the risk and costs of single-point solutions, improve consistency, and stay ahead in a rapidly changing industry, this blog is a must-read. See how organizations are achieving these outcomes with the help of a flexible, proven solution like CLARIFIRE®.”

Plaintiff Jason Morano argues that his suit forced Rocket and Redfin to release information that helped shareholders make an informed decision on the merger.

A year after the transaction was announced, and 11 months’ post-cancellation, an AI-driven answer to a search engine query said the deal was completed.

After steering his former companies through turmoil, Martell will again attempt to turn fortunes around for a firm under regulatory and legal scrutiny.

The National Fair Housing Alliance accuses the department of using inaccurate statistics to justify deep cuts to fair housing programs