Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day

After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility with unpredictable timing, the past two trading sessions have been tremendous departures from the norm. Both days featured linear, reasonably big  improvements without any singular flashpoints that deserve any more credit than a general sense of cooler heads prevailing on the policy-making front. Indeed, when the week ends with Trump saying “we will be reasonable on tariffs” as opposed to doubling down on triple digit brinksmanship, something has certainly changed and both sides of the market are looking relieved. 

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment (revision/final)

52.2 vs 50.8 f’cast
1yr inflation 6.5 vs 6.7 f’cast
5yr inflation 4.4 vs 4.4 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

09:58 AM Modestly stronger overnight and mostly holding gains so far.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.284

02:19 PM Additional gains and near best levels.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 5.6bps at 4.265

04:51 PM Heading out at best levels, MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 7bps at 4.25.