Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower in tomorrow’s data. Credit for this concept and collation of the data goes to our friends at BMO’s US Rates Strategy desk.
The “beat/miss/match” row refers to the percent of previous July payroll counts beating, missing, or matching the forecast.
Jobless Claims
Report
Result
NFP Implication
Initial Claims (NFP week)
221k vs 233k f’cast
Higher
Continuing Claims
1946k vs 1951k prior
Higher
Private Payrolls
ADP Employment
104k vs 76k f’cast
Higher
Liscio Estimate
105k vs 104k consensus
Neutral
Unemployment Report History
Beat / Miss / Match (July)
42% / 35% / 23%
Mixed / Slightly Higher
Labor Differential
11.3 vs 12.2 prior
Lower
Regional Fed Surveys
Empire State – Employees
9.2 vs 4.7 prior
Higher
Empire State – Workweek
4.2 vs -1.5 prior
Higher
Philly Fed – Employees
10.3 vs -9.8 prior
Higher
Philly Fed – Workweek
0.4 vs -1.6 prior
Higher
Other Indicators
Challenger Job Cuts (July)
62,075 vs 47,999 prior
Lower
Payroll Seasonality (ex-2020)
Miss 54%, Beat 46% (avg ±60k)
Slightly Lower