What Does July’s Data Suggest About Friday’s Jobs Report?

Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower in tomorrow’s data. Credit for this concept and collation of the data goes to our friends at BMO’s US Rates Strategy desk.
The “beat/miss/match” row refers to the percent of previous July payroll counts beating, missing, or matching the forecast.

Jobless Claims

Report
Result
NFP Implication

Initial Claims (NFP week)
221k vs 233k f’cast
Higher

Continuing Claims
1946k vs 1951k prior
Higher

Private Payrolls

ADP Employment
104k vs 76k f’cast
Higher

Liscio Estimate
105k vs 104k consensus
Neutral

Unemployment Report History

Beat / Miss / Match (July)
42% / 35% / 23%
Mixed / Slightly Higher

Labor Differential
11.3 vs 12.2 prior
Lower

Regional Fed Surveys

Empire State – Employees
9.2 vs 4.7 prior
Higher

Empire State – Workweek
4.2 vs -1.5 prior
Higher

Philly Fed – Employees
10.3 vs -9.8 prior
Higher

Philly Fed – Workweek
0.4 vs -1.6 prior
Higher

Other Indicators

Challenger Job Cuts (July)
62,075 vs 47,999 prior
Lower

Payroll Seasonality (ex-2020)
Miss 54%, Beat 46% (avg ±60k)
Slightly Lower