As hoped, Friday’s big rate spike did not carry additional momentum into the new week.  This is occasionally a risk when rates are responding to big surprise in the jobs report, but slightly less of a risk when the other economic data had been weaker.  All that having been said, it’s not as if we’re seeing a triumphant return to last week’s lowest levels.  Rather, it’s more of a solid show of support at Friday’s higher levels with a very modest bounce.  In terms of our 30yr fixed rate index, the improvement is 0.02%.  There were no significant economic reports or news headlines to inspire volatility, although afternoon headlines regarding progress on trade talks with China may have resulted in bonds losing some ground. All else equal, when bonds lose enough ground, mortgage rates move higher, but today’s afternoon losses were too small to trigger a reaction among mortgage lenders.

Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines

First thing’s first: bonds closed in stronger territory and retained most of the gains that were present in the AM hours.  But they would have done just a bit better if not for a handful of newswires that hit around 2:30pm ET regarding vaguely positive comments on US/China trade talks (i.e. BESSENT ON US-CHINA TALKS: ‘GOOD MEETING’). This preceded a move up to 4.487 from 4.470 in 10yr yields–barely worth mentioning in the bigger picture, and only mentioned here to reinforce the market’s willingness to react to trade-related headlines and because US/China talks will be continuing on Tuesday.

Market Movement Recap

09:53 AM Sideways overnight and inching into positive territory after 9:30am NYSE open.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.3bps

Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had last Friday’s jobs report been as weak as some of the other data, the range likely would not have prevailed, but as it stands, 10yr yields remain mostly bookended by 4.4 below and 4.56 overhead. There is no relevant data to threaten the range on the first two days of the week.  Even Wednesday’s CPI is playing with an injury (unknown impacts of TBD trade policy) and could struggle to live up to its market moving reputation, even if it’s an exciting number. This leaves the primary big picture motivations in the hands of fiscal/trade headlines (US/China trade talks and/or any meaningful updates on the budget bill in the Senate).

Interested parties have until July 5 to give their views regarding the new standard for home equity line of credit electronic closing documents.

A new proposal from the Senate Banking Committee for the massive budget bill to eliminate this source of funding for the Consumer Bureau is dangerous, writes the president of the Center for Responsible Lending

In her first speech since being confirmed as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, Michelle Bowman outlined a set of ambitious pursuits that would overhaul bank regulation and examination.

The lender’s former chief of staff alleged the non-QM lender misrepresented loan characteristics to investors and regulators, charges which were never proven.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau pinpointed five rules that it wants the White House budget office to review. Details, however, are sparse.

Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data

It’s not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today’s bond market sell-off was a perfectly logical reaction to the modest beat in NFP. But wait, what about the negative revisions?! Yes, it’s still a logical reaction. Reasons for this are exhaustively discussed in today’s video, but the short version is as follows. Wednesday’s rally was largely about Wednesday’s data carrying anecdotal implications for Friday’s jobs report. When Friday’s jobs report didn’t deliver the goods, the rally was erased. Revisions didn’t matter because last month’s NFP was a big beat in and of itself and only revised to levels that were still higher than today’s headline.  Bottom line: NFP looks sideways at decent levels–not at all worthy of the concern suggested by Wednesday’s reports and other generally weaker data over the past week.

Econ Data / Events

Nonfarm Payrolls

139k vs 130k f’cast, 147k prev

Unemployment Rate

4.2 vs 4.2 f’cast/prev

Market Movement Recap

08:44 AM Weaker after NFP.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.453

12:14 PM weakest levels of the day with MBS down a total of 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr yields up 9.1bps at 4.486. 

03:55 PM Slow, steady selling trend continues (maybe leveling off now) with MBS down 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr up 11.1bps at 4.505

Today is the 81st anniversary of D-Day. “My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst mechanic the Luftwaffe ever had.” On the anniversary of D-Day, let’s hope the entire world is not involved in a war again, although humans have had a recurring theme of conflict. Scaling things down significantly but keeping with the “recurring” theme… Lenders hope that applications and locks are recurring, but it is continuing to be sketchy. According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances decreased 12% week over week and decreased 28% in May; the purchase index decreased 16% week over week and increased 6% for May as a whole. But in May 2025 funded mortgage volume increased 12% YoY and increased 6% MoM. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures, and drills into this data further here. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Jake Perkins on the new Chrisman Marketplace and how it is adding value to the industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders Following a highly successful launch, Origination Boost, spearheaded by Mandi Feely-Swain, EVP of Premier Mortgage Resources and Idaho’s #1 Loan Originator, is proving to be a game-changer for loan officers. Now in its second year, Origination Boost is not just maintaining momentum; it’s raising the bar and helping loan officers move closer to their goals. The program’s twice-monthly coaching calls continue to offer tactical strategies and high-level mindset coaching, keeping participants laser-focused on results. The exclusive Origination Boost app adds even more value, offering on-the-go accountability tools and tracking systems that drive measurable production increases. Feely-Swain recently announced new incentives for those participating in Origination Boost, including free marketing services when goals are met. Learn more: info@pmrloans.com.