This week I head to San Diego for MCT Exchange 2025, and my email has been heating up. “Rob, are you hearing about a big jump in lock volume last week?” Yes… it may not be just you. As they say, a rising tide raises all boats. “Rob, are you hearing about an uptick in FHA delinquencies?” Yes, absolutely, and for quite some time. These high margin, low down payment loans are seeing an increase in problems. “Rob, are you hearing that the CFPB is back up and running?” Yes, at least parts of it: regs, monitoring, the complaint function; less so supervision and enforcement. Speaking of which, Mortgage Musings author and attorney Brian Levy hopes someone gets his message in a bottle with his latest Musing doubling as an open letter to CFPB leadership containing many suggestions for mortgage regulatory reform. “Rob, are you hearing that LOs need videos to reach millennial home buyers?” Perhaps… I know that in today’s Mortgages for Millennials, Kristin Messerli and Robbie Chrisman are joined by guest Ralph Remy of National MI: “Trust in financial institutions is plummeting, and YouTube has emerged as the go-to platform for homebuying education.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. ICE offers an interconnected digital mortgage ecosystem to help clients improve productivity, reduce costs, and deliver a meaningful customer experience. Today’s has an Interview with TRUE’s Steve Butler on how instant loan intelligence is revolutionizing borrower engagement. Lenders who fail to adopt AI-driven processes risk becoming obsolete.)

Bostic now sees price growth returning to the Fed’s 2% goal at some point in early 2027.

Officials in the Trump administration have floated the idea of changing how the government measures economic growth. Economists say the shift would create new expenses for banks.

Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood discussed using fintech to evaluate self-employed borrowers’ creditworthiness, saying alternative credit models could promote financial inclusion.

The new name Cotality, along with its latest tag line, reflects its role in serving and uniting the entire property ecosystem, company executives said.

Trade groups representing banks and utilities urged lawmakers to reauthorize the CISA law before it expires in September.

Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data

Bonds lost ground over the weekend as news of tariff exclusions fueled a stock rally.  A modest recovery was underway when the S&P Services PMI came out stronger.  From that point on, bonds were on the back foot, ultimately hitting their weakest levels in the afternoon.  Incidentally, this brings 10yr yields right in line with the ceiling of the recent range. Today’s video discusses the implications of a potential range breakout, which can mean different things for different people. 

Econ Data / Events

S&P Services PMI

54.3 vs  50.8 f’cast, 51.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:32 AM Moderately weaker over the weekend, but recovering somewhat now.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.289

09:56 AM Some additional weakness after PMI data.  MBS down nearly a quarter point and 10yr up 6bps at 4.316

02:20 PM 10yr yields are up nearly 8bps at 4.333 and MBS are down nearly 3/8ths after hawkish comments from Fed’s Bostic (but not obviously because of Bostic, necessarily).

03:48 PM Little changed from previous update and flat since then.  MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 7.9bps at 4.334

Wall Street is weighing in on the possible fate of home loan giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, after a fleeting suggestion by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week that the government’s stakes could eventually become part of the proposed US sovereign wealth fund.

Effective March 18, the department is retracting eligibility for non-citizens, it announced.

Over 100,000 loans for first-time home buyers have been pooled and securitized in issuances this year, the guarantor of government-backed loans said.