ICE Mortgage Technology originally planned to complete the Encompass SDK to API migration by Oct. 31; now users have an additional 14 months.

A possible shift in the composition of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio of Treasury holdings could result in the central bank buying nearly $2 trillion of bills over the next two years, enough to absorb nearly all of the Treasury’s issuance during that period, according to Bank of America Corp.

Even with direct costs of import taxes excluded, prices for residential construction goods and services increased by the most in two years, NAHB said.

Federal trigger lead bans will change borrower monitoring overnight. Lenders who act now on consent, predictive alerts, and clean data can protect their pipelines and gain an edge in a quieter market.

Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications

Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stronger core retail sales number this morning, bonds managed to hold mostly sideways until the afternoon hours.  At that point, lighter summertime Friday afternoon trading gave way to a mini snowball that took yields to their highest levels of the week.  Fed Funds futures suggested some thought behind the selling with the highest implied September rate since just before Tuesday’s CPI. All that having been said, bonds could simply be hedging their optimism ahead of next week’s Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In the bigger picture, little has changed since last Friday’s jobs report.

Econ Data / Events

Export prices mm (Jul)

0.1% vs 0.1% f’cast, prev 0.5%

Import prices mm (Jul)

0.4% vs 0.0% f’cast, prev -0.1%

NY Fed Manufacturing (Aug)

11.90 vs 0.0 f’cast, prev 5.50

Retail Sales (Jul)

0.5% vs 0.5% f’cast, prev 0.6%

Retail Sales (ex-autos) (Jul)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, prev 0.8%

Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul)

0.5% vs 0.4% f’cast, prev 0.8%

Market Movement Recap

09:03 AM Mixed reaction to econ data, but broadly sideways.  10yr down 0.2bps at 4.284 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).

12:22 PM 10yr yields are now up 3.5bps on the day at 4.321. MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and just over an eighth from highs

12:51 PM just a bit weaker now.  MBS down almost an eighth on the day and more than an eighth from early rate sheets.  10yr up 4.1bps at 4.327

03:25 PM Off the very weakest levels heading into the close with MBS down an eighth and 10yr yields up 3.9bps at 4.325

Friday morning’s highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/building materials) was even more respectable as it not only beat the forecast by 0.1, but was also revised 0.3 higher last month. If the bond market were so inclined, this data provides plenty of cover for a little sell-off.  But while there’s been a modicum of weakness in response, it’s effectively an unchanged day so far–especially for MBS.

10yr yields are about 1bp higher, but still in the post-NFP range.

“The difference between me and Superman is that he has super vision. I require supervision.” We’re halfway through the third quarter: Will your company require supervision or super vision to go forward? Speaking of which, when did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? In Mortgage Land, I received this note. “Rob, I tuned in recently to a webinar of an investment banking economist talking about the lending industry in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2025. All they could talk about were predictions of doom and gloom: increased delinquencies, increasing inventory for sale, fewer borrowers qualifying (especially with student loans coming due), more borrowers ‘under water,’ Agency uncertainty, more sellers refusing to budge on their asking prices, and higher rates. Are you hearing similar things?” Never listen to the experts! Watch the facts! No, volumes aren’t setting the world on fire, but most companies have right sized and seem to be doing “moderate to good.” Individuals and families still want to own a home and stop renting and still want someone to help them save money on their overall debt picture. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. By seamlessly integrating best-in-class solutions, ICE optimizes every stage of the loan life cycle, setting the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency, and scalability, and defining the future of homeownership. Today’s has an interview with Total Expert’s Joe Welu on how the company is leveraging its new Agentic AI Sales Assistant to transform loan officer productivity, strengthen customer relationships, and drive mortgage volume, while examining the evolving opportunities and risks AI presents to lenders in 2025 and beyond.)

Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates. Retail sales data was generally stronger than expected, especially when considering revisions and when focusing on the “core” numbers that strip out more volatile categories such as autos/fuel and building materials. Bonds (which underlie rates) didn’t move too much at first, but began losing ground amid the tougher Friday afternoon trading conditions. When bonds lose ground, it implies upward pressure on rates. Several lenders reissued slightly higher rates in the afternoon. This technically made Friday the highest mortgage rate day of the week. That said, these rates are still much closer to long term lows than most of the past 10 months. In fact, apart from the past 9 business days, today’s rates would still be the lowest since early October 2024. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Real estate investor sentiment bounced back from two quarters of decline, but lingering fears around tariffs, interest rates still weigh on many buyers’ minds

Funds parked at a major Federal Reserve facility dropped to the lowest level in more than four years, putting in focus the amount of cash banks have sitting at the US central bank, a measure of liquidity conditions.