If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr yields were up by more than 3bps at one point and MBS fell just over an eighth of a point. These may seem like big swings relative to yesterday’s narrow range, but this is actually a rather tame expression of year-end volatility. To understand a bit more about month/quarter/year-end trading motivations, check out our primer on the topic. 4 trading days ago, 10yr yields hit the top of the prevailing range at 4.20.  Yesterday, they were close enough to the lower end of that range (4.10). Nothing that occurs inside these boundaries is remotely significant–just noise.

The additional research Secretary Scott Turner acknowledged would be required should include a cost-benefit analysis, mortgage professionals suggested.

This year it took a homebuyer seven years to save for a typical down payment on a house, compared with 12, according to Realtor.com.

Here are the most-read stories from National Mortgage News over the past year.

The latest announcement comes two months after an initial round of staff reductions following approval of Rocket’s acquisition of the company.

Under a proposed rule, the agency would let most nationally chartered firms off the hook for heightened regulatory standards. The rule would raise the bar from $50 billion to $700 billion of assets and leave only eight firms subject to heightened regulation.

With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND’s 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%. This is the lowest level since October 28th–just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates.  Before that, you’d have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower. As always, there’s never any way to know what’s next for rates. The outcome of next week’s economic data could certainly have a say in that. What we do know is that the present zone has been a recurring lower boundary for the range going all the way back to late 2022.

Uneventful And Slightly Stronger

Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the late December bond market from exhibiting any unexpected signs of life. A stronger open in Europe made for a modest improvement overnight and almost all of the domestic session was spent treading water at those same levels. 

Econ Data / Events

Pending Home Sales

79.2 vs 74.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:12 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding sideways so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.117

03:38 PM Minimal volatility all day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.114

In addition to this week’s holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday),  the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential sources of volatility. A majority of any meaningful momentum is most likely to come from month/quarter/year-end trading today and tomorrow, but think of that more like a caveat for any incidental movement rather than a prediction. Monday is off to an OK start with modest overnight gains driven by rally in EU bonds after their return from holiday. Treasuries gladly followed in the illiquid overnight hours, but have been less willing to do so now that the domestic session is underway.

Some percentage of readers reading today’s Commentary are doing so from an airport in the Northeast, waiting for their delayed flight to depart. Whether manmade or natural, climate change and weather “occurrences” are a fact of life, and can’t be corrected with technology, but data is certainly used in predicting weather. Vendors and lenders think about data collection versus data verification versus data analysis. Is your organization doing all three, two, one, or none? (Technology: just because you can do something doesn’t mean that you should… Tired of sliding your finger over a screen, especially in a car? Here’s some welcome news.) Lenders try to use technology to combat fraud, with mixed results. CrossCountry has made headlines by seeking $2.1 million from Christopher J. Gallo who is battling 18 federal charges. (Unsubstantiated chatter has Gallo and his team allegedly focusing on DSCR loans and originating $1.4 billion of allegedly fraudulent loans.) “Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time” … more below. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by the Refi Recapture Engine from LO Autopilot. Did you know lenders lose 80 percent of refi recapture? The Refi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume and delivers refi-ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. They’re so confident in the ROI they let you try before you buy. Contact them for a demo. Hear an interview with marketer Bri Lees on statistics and findings from an audit on the Chrisman Commentary reach and distribution, which is a must-listen for advertising partners.)