Although Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey (released today) suggested the lowest rates since October 2024, our daily numbers offer a bit more nuance. To be sure, October 28th and September 16th both saw distinctly lower rates this year.   Today’s rates are right in line with yesterday’s as well as last Friday’s.  In other words, this week is flat compared to Friday although the average rate is lower so far. The bond market closes early today and will be fully closed tomorrow. Bonds reopen on Friday and then will be fully open for a normal week of trading next week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today’s half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print.  Robots are also not smart enough to know that the sub-200k print is likely distorted…

The professionals can’t originate loans in their local cities for various stretches, following a federal judge’s ruling granting most of the lender’s wishes.

National home prices grew monthly and annually in October, but considerably less than last year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Three U.S. senators opened an inquiry into insurance ratings firm Demotech and whether its assessments may be exposing taxpayers to growing risks tied to climate-driven insurer failures.

The new regulation, which passed overwhelmingly in the state legislature, would allow insurers to remove wildfire protections from standard homeowners policies.

New Jersey-based OceanFirst Financial slid in its planned $579 million acquisition of Flushing Financial just before the end of the year. The private equity firm Warburg Pincus is also participating in the transaction.

Loan originators are acutely aware of demographics (“know your borrower,” right?). Naming generations is relatively recent, and then-People Magazine Editor Landon Y. Jones coined the term Baby Boomer. (He died last year.) The oldest Baby Boomers turn 80 in 2026. By the end of this decade, all baby boomers will be 65 and older, and the number of people 80 and over will double in 20 years. Do you have loan products for them? Without any immigration, the U.S. population will start shrinking in five years. VP JD Vance is among those pushing for an increase in fertility. Vance has suggested giving parents more voting power, according to their numbers of children, or giving low-interest loans to married parents and tax exemptions to women who have four children or more. (Recall that last year JD Vance recommended giving votes to all children in this country but let’s give control over those votes to the parents of those children.) All of these trends and statements do, or could, impact every residential lender. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by the Refi Recapture Engine from LO Autopilot. Did you know lenders lose 80 percent of refi recapture? The Refi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume and delivers refi-ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. They’re so confident in the ROI they let you try before you buy. Contact them for a demo. Hear an interview with consultant Jeremy Potter on when companies should use external labor, why LinkedIn is an intellectual isolation ward, and final thoughts from the year that was in mortgage.)

Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of 2025. Today is tied for 7th place after rates moved 0.01% higher on average. While the underlying bond market is fully open today, it’s a slow time of year in terms of volume and volatility. Bigger movement becomes more likely by the end of next week thanks to the return of important economic reports and stronger trader participation after holiday absences. 

Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness

Bonds were slightly weaker this morning in a move that looked like it might have been significant when compared to yesterday’s narrow range.  But in a just-barely-wider context, today’s volatility was just as inconsequential as almost any of the days in December so far.  With that, we’ll continue to count down to next week’s bigger-ticket data and more robust trader participation. 

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Oct)

1.3% vs 1.1% f’cast, 1.4% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Oct)

-0.3% vs — f’cast, -0.5% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Oct)

0.4% vs 0.1% f’cast, 0% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Oct)

1.7% vs — f’cast, 1.7% prev

Chicago PMI (Dec)

43.5 vs 39.5 f’cast, 36.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:10 AM Moderately weaker overnight and sideways so far. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.135

12:02 PM bouncing back a bit. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.119

03:14 PM Still mostly sideways. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.128.