Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower in tomorrow’s data. Credit for this concept and collation of the data goes to our friends at BMO’s US Rates Strategy desk.
The “beat/miss/match” row refers to the percent of previous July payroll counts beating, missing, or matching the forecast.

Jobless Claims

Report
Result
NFP Implication

Initial Claims (NFP week)
221k vs 233k f’cast
Higher

Continuing Claims
1946k vs 1951k prior
Higher

Private Payrolls

ADP Employment
104k vs 76k f’cast
Higher

Liscio Estimate
105k vs 104k consensus
Neutral

Unemployment Report History

Beat / Miss / Match (July)
42% / 35% / 23%
Mixed / Slightly Higher

Labor Differential
11.3 vs 12.2 prior
Lower

Regional Fed Surveys

Empire State – Employees
9.2 vs 4.7 prior
Higher

Empire State – Workweek
4.2 vs -1.5 prior
Higher

Philly Fed – Employees
10.3 vs -9.8 prior
Higher

Philly Fed – Workweek
0.4 vs -1.6 prior
Higher

Other Indicators

Challenger Job Cuts (July)
62,075 vs 47,999 prior
Lower

Payroll Seasonality (ex-2020)
Miss 54%, Beat 46% (avg ±60k)
Slightly Lower

The regulator renewed his fight with the policymaker after the latter left the rates he oversees unchanged and distinguished them from those for mortgages.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during his regular press conference Wednesday that the process of determining tariff-related price increases was always going to be slow, but it has taken longer than he expected.

Fears of identity theft are top of mind for many Americans, even as many admit they’re open to lying themselves in order to get mortgage credit.

One mortgage firm is out of business months after a cybersecurity incident, which compromised the personal information of over 30,000 of its former clients.

Still, Redwood Trust lost $100 million on a GAAP basis for the period, a result of its previous decision to pivot to a scalable operating model in mortgages.

Markets Expected More Dovishness From Powell

AM data was a mixed bag that left bonds slightly weaker on the day, but not in an alarming way. GDP was mixed, coming in much stronger at the headline, but with lower domestic demand numbers. PCE prices were revised 0.2 higher for the quarter, meaning that tomorrow’s monthly PCE data has a 1 in 3 chance of being the culprit (slightly raises risk of higher inflation reading). But the day’s big focus was on Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The announcement itself was inconsequential. Powell had a chance to get a bit more dovish in response to recent inflation data, but instead stuck to the exact same script (hoping tariff inflation is a one-off, but wants to wait and see, and has luxury of doing so based on 4.1% unemployment). Bottom line: no bone thrown to rate cut optimists = Fed Funds Futures priced in lower odds for near-term cuts.  This spilled into bonds only modestly, leaving 10yr yields in line with AM highs and leaving the broader trend as sideways as ever. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

104k vs 75k f’cast, -23k prev

Market Movement Recap

09:29 AM A hair weaker overnight with additional selling after data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5bps at 4.373

12:53 PM A bit of resilience heading into Fed announcement.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.365

02:08 PM very small, friendly reaction to Fed.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.348

03:22 PM Weaker after Powell press conference.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.374

The leading lenders have hinted at more serious accusations in the lawsuit focusing on the departure of nearly two dozen employees earlier this year.

Home prices rose at the slowest pace in nearly two years, signaling a deeper shift as concerns about the economy and mortgage rates dampen consumer demand

In leaving its partnership, Beeline Financial said it disposed of its majority stake in Bridgetown Spirits Corp. in exchange for over $360,000.