Mortgage Rates Back in Line With Long-Term Lows

Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven’t been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memorable move int he past few months occurred after the August 1st jobs report. It resulted in a 2-day drop from 6.75% to 6.57%.  The next closest contender was last Friday’s reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech which took the index from 6.62 to 6.52.  So far this week, we’ve been holding very close to those levels.  Yesterday saw a modest bump and today pushed rates back down to Friday’s levels. The end. This week’s movements could be classified as incidental, random drift.  Such a trend is a logical interlude separating the news and events that actually matter to the big picture rate trend. Barring a major, unexpected development, the next high-consequence event is the jobs report due out next Friday. It would be no surprise to see a fairly drifty trend prevail until then.

Does “Yield Curve Steepening” Matter?

Modest, Incidental Victory

Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of a point. 10yr yields fell just under 1bp to 4.264. 2yr yields did better, shedding just over 4bps and extending their gap vs 10yr yields to the widest levels since the volatile days in early April. The AM news cycle credited the news of Trump firing the Fed’s Lisa Cook for this “steepening” (a steeper slope between 2 and 10yr yields). Indeed, it may have contributed, but it’s debatable whether this level of movement in the curve actually matters.  2s vs 10s have been holding a tight range since April with few days falling outside a range of 0.45 to 0.57. In the bigger picture, bonds are still counting the hours until next Friday’s jobs report. 

Econ Data / Events

Durable Goods

-2.8 vs -4.0 f’cast, -9.3 prev

Core Durable Goods

1.1 vs 0.2 f’cast, -0.7 prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Jun)

0.0% vs — f’cast, 0.4% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jun)

-0.2% vs 0% f’cast, -0.2% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Jun)

2.6% vs — f’cast, 2.8% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM roughly unchanged overnight and mostly holding in early trading. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.278

01:19 PM Strong 2yr auction but bonds were already gaining ground before that.  10yr now down 1.3bps at 4.259.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09)

05:23 PM Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels, up an eighth of a point.  10yr yields fell just under 1bp to 4.264. 

Fannie Ticket, Custom Software; Stratmor CX, Industry Events; Trump Shapes the Fed

There are some “big-hitters” in the mortgage, finance, and housing world who will tell you that the Trump Administration’s plan to sell shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could drive up the mortgage rates that Americans pay. Shareholders want a return. Others will counter that the time has come to remove them from conservatorship, regardless. It’s time to “pull off the bandage” quickly. Either way, mortgage industry observers are wondering about the fate of Fannie and Freddie in the wake of statements from the President and FHFA Director Pulte about a GSE IPO and combining the two housing finance agencies into one “Great American Mortgage Company.” Mortgage Musings author and attorney Brian Levy weighs in with his unique perspective on this in his latest edition, Corruption and the Great American Mortgage Company. Sign up to receive the Mortgage Musings at www.blevy.substack.com or it can be found on the Chrisman Commentary Thought Leadership page.“ Speaking of the Agencies, if you are looking to obtain a FNMA seller/servicer approval or have an internal title insurer vetting process that requires you to maintain risk information on title insurers, Secure Insight offers risk profiles on national and regional insurers which include independent financial stability ratings. Contact Amanda Padd or visit Secure Insight. And for what should be a fantastic discussion on the future of mortgage workflows and how the industry could consolidate as it moves toward a marketplace (a la car insurance shopping or flight searches), tune into Mortgages With Millennials, today at 10a PT/1p ET, when Robbie sits down with Porchlight’s David Wells and Pylon Lending’s Trent Hedge for a discussion on bringing underwriting to the point of search. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Arrive Home. Arrive Home helps mortgage lenders connect creditworthy buyers with down payment assistance and affordable homeownership solutions, offering tools that empower lenders and uplift communities. Hear an interview with Arrive Home’s Shawn King on how downpayment assistance is helping millions of Americans build generational wealth.)

Another Slow Start Despite Underlying Drama

Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday.  With all of this morning’s data now reported, we’ve seen no measurable impact on bonds.  The overnight session was a different story but not due to econ data.  Rather, bonds responded to Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook (a process that is more complicated than it sounds) with a steepening of the yield curve (2yr yields moved lower versus 10yr yields). The steepening is consistent with the view that Cook’s replacement would be that much more supportive of an aggressive rate cut outlook (2yr Treasuries have more in common with the Fed Funds Rate than 10yr Treasuries). This isn’t a major shift in the bigger picture and it remains to be seen how Cook’s firing will actually play out.