Stronger Start Thanks to Weekly ADP Data

ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few weeks and traders have wasted no time incorporating it into the inner circle of influential market movers.  Perhaps this dynamic will fade after the government shutdown ends, but for now, it’s big business (as evidenced by the market reaction in TSY futures during the Tuesday holiday). All of the gains on the screen this morning came courtesy of that data and bonds have been broadly flat since then.

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“6-7!” has swept the nation for youngsters of indeterminant age, and for no real reason. Other numbers have meaning, as do dates. For example, today is November 10th and on this day in 1975, the freighter S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior during a massive storm, killing all 29 of the crew. (Gordon Lightfoot memorialized the tragedy in a hit song the following year.) What’s in a number? Today, let’s look at “50” or “100.” Through some social media software, the president has brought up the 50- or 100-year mortgage as a way of improving affordability. Most people in this country would prefer to pay off their mortgage sooner than later. Does anyone admire the Japanese economy, or grandkids paying off their grandparent’s mortgage? “Through the use of simulation, the conclusion is reached that the 100-year mortgage has failed to increase the affordability of homes. Instead, affluent homeowners are more likely to employ long-term mortgages as an estate-planning tool to reduce inheritance taxes.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TransUnion. Mortgage lenders choose TransUnion for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions, enabling them to achieve more desirable lending outcomes in a volatile housing market. Hear an interview with TRUE’s Steve Butler on the challenges of income analysis in lending, particularly the delays caused by manual data entry and underwriting processes, and how technological advancements are solving this.)