The amount was less than $1 million, but the plot reveals clues that can help spot and fight elderly abuse and other financial crimes.

The Federal Housing Administration is moving to the same standard for the new Uniform Residential Appraisal Report that the conforming market is adopting.

The government-sponsored enterprises’ oversight agency will require the merging mortgage giants to have “appropriate financial and operating safeguards.”

The increase in purchase volume was not enough to offset the drop in refinance application submissions as conventional rates increased week-over-week.

Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising year-over-year, but at an increasingly slow rate. Case Shiller–the more volatile index–is at the lowest pace in more than 2 years while the broader FHFA index is the lowest since 2012 in year-over-year terms.   FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)
June: −0.2%; May was revised to −0.1% from unchanged
YoY: +2.9% from June 2024 to June 2025
All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.7% in the Mountain division to +6.7% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted)
YoY: +1.9% in June, down from +2.3% in May
MoM (non seasonally adjusted): +0.4%
MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3%
The 20-City Composite posted a −0.3% MoM decline (SA) and a +2.1% YoY gain. The 10-City Composite was slightly firmer at −0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison:

Index
MoM (SA)
YoY

FHFA HPI
−0.2%
+2.9%

Case-Shiller
−0.3%
+1.9%

Non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller readings still show the usual spring/summer uptick, but once adjusted for seasonality the underlying trend is negative. FHFA data also points to weakening, with its second consecutive month of declines.

Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start

Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any particular reason (and certainly for no interesting reasons). For those who care about such things, the yield curve continued to steepen (shorter term yields outperforming longer term yields), but this is fairly irrelevant to the mortgage world as MBS are relatively neutral in curve trading terms (durations are short enough not to get hurt when 30yr bonds are hurting, and long enough to avoid getting hurt when 2yr yields are hurting). Speaking of the neutral part of the curve, today’s 5yr auction ended up fairly strong and the reaction helped yields hit their best levels of the day in the afternoon.  That said, all of the above is playing out on a micro scale in the bigger picture.  We’re basically just drifting from one jobs report to the next.

Market Movement Recap

09:32 AM fairly flat overnight with some selling at 8:20am CME open. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.281

01:05 PM No major reaction to ho-hum 5yr auction.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.251

03:07 PM holding near best levels with MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.239

It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, today represents a technical “record low” for 2025 with average rates edging just slightly lower than those seen on August 22nd and 26th. Our index (which tracks top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates for ideal scenarios) is now 6.51%, the lowest it’s been since October 3rd 2024 when it was 6.26%. Virtually all of the recent improvement in rates followed the August 1st jobs report. Everything since August 4th has transpired in a relatively narrow range.  There was no new development that accounted for today’s improvement–just a random drift that happened to work out in our favor.

Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 0.5% decrease in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 22, 2025. “Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400.” The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remains 19% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index rose 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is running 25% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications decreased to 45.3%. ARM share declined to 8.4%. FHA share held steady at 19.1%, while VA share slipped to 13.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary:
30yr Fixed: 6.69% (from 6.68%) | Points: 0.60 (unchanged)
15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 5.96%) | Points: 0.77 (up from 0.70)
Jumbo 30yr: 6.67% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.44 (down from 0.60)
FHA: 6.35% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.80 (up from 0.66)
5/1 ARM: 5.94% (from 6.01%) | Points: 0.68 (up from 0.63)

The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate came in at 652,000. This marks a -0.6% dip from June’s revised 656,000, and leaves sales -8.2% lower than July 2024’s 710,000 level. For all practical purposes, the pace of sales continues to run sideways, reflecting the same stable range seen over the past 2+ years despite periodic swings. Regional Breakdown (Sales, July 2025)
South: -3.5% MoM
Midwest: -6.6% MoM
Northeast: unchanged MoM
West: +11.7% MoM
Market Inventory & Pricing
Homes for sale: 499,000 units (-0.6% from June; +7.3% YoY)
Months’ supply: 9.2 months (flat MoM; +16.5% YoY)
Median sales price: $403,800 (-0.8% MoM; -5.9% YoY)
Average sales price: $487,300 (-3.6% MoM; -5.0% YoY)
Big Picture Takeaway July’s new home sales data reinforces the recent pattern: demand is steady at best, but not accelerating. Inventory remains elevated, keeping months’ supply near multi-year highs. While prices have softened meaningfully versus last year (reflecting lower square footage more than actual price declines), elevated housing costs continue to limit the benefit to buyers.

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