Mortgage Rates Bounce But Remain Lower on The Week

The top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate index rose 0.04% on Friday, which would be a medium-sized defeat in and of itself. In the broader context, however, it was an acceptable adjustment on what has otherwise been a solid week.  Specifically, today’s rates are still 0.08% lower than last Friday’s. There were no standout individual sources of inspiration today. Keen observers may note that today’s Consumer Sentiment data seemed to coincide with mid-day upward pressure in rates, but that was a bit deceptive.  The upward pressure began in earnest at 8:20am ET, which is essentially the opening bell for the bond market.  It’s true that the weakness accelerated after the Consumer Sentiment data, but not until 6 minutes afterward, and that’s an uncommon delay when it comes to rates responding to economic data. All that to say: it looks like the rate market was somewhat determined to lose some ground today.  This can happen on weeks like this one where there has been a solid improvement through Thursday and where the following week brings additional sources of potential volatility.

Not Reading Too Much Into Friday’s Weakness

Not Reading Too Much Into Friday’s Weakness

At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it’s only logical to give Consumer Sentiment credit for sparking today’s bond market selling spree.  Closer inspection adds nuance.  First off, selling began in earnest at 8:20am–the unofficial opening bell for bond market trading and a time of day where inclined sellers/buyers are often lined up and waiting to trade accordingly. Then there’s the fact that the post-data selling didn’t begin until 6 minutes after the data–an odd eventuality given the tendency for reactions to be perfectly immediate. Last but not least, we can entertain several reasons that traders might be interested in moving to the sidelines ahead of next week’s potential geopolitical developments and Fed announcement. 

Econ Data / Events

Core MM PPI

0.1 vs 0.3 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Core YY PPI

3.0 vs 3.1 f’cast, 3.2 prev

Monthly Headline PPI

0.1 vs 0.2 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Jobless Claims

248k cs 240k f’cast, 248k prev

Continued Claims

1956k vs 1910k f’cast, 1902k prev

Market Movement Recap

09:09 AM Roughly unchanged overnight and losing ground early.  MBS down just over an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.387

11:33 AM steady selling all morning.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.425

01:37 PM 10yr yields are now up 8bps on the day at 4.443 and MBS are down nearly 3/8ths of a point

03:24 PM Worst seems to be over for selling.  Still weaker though with MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.416

Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines

By 8pm last night, news of Israel’s attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some of the headlines, it’s only natural to assume that markets were only getting started with the “risk-off” trading pattern.  Natural, yes… but not necessarily logical.  In fact, similar paradoxes are so prevalent that we have dedicated reminder to the topic: overnight trading makes no guarantees. Ultimately, with 10yr yields over 4.5% on Wednesday morning and under 4.40% right now, none of the volatility of the past 12 hours is worth over-analyzing.  Yields have challenged last week’s floor and look to be tabling the idea of a breakout until further review.

What about oil prices?  Could this be the reason for the paradox?  To be sure, there is strong correlation between oil and bond yields at times, but there is strong correlation between bond yields and many metrics that speak to economic strength and/or inflation.  It could certainly be an ancillary consideration, but it’s not the driving force.

2nd Lien Reverse, Borrower Aid, Legal Counsel Products; FHA, USDA, VA Changes; FBC Rebrand

Hey, for you LOs who think things are slow, you can always go into golf. The best example of this is ex-LO Ben Griffin who has racked up $11 million in PGA winnings! A large number of professional athletes, active or retired, seem to live in Florida, Texas, or Arizona (taxes and climate being what they are). Of those, who suckles up to the federal government the most? As of 2022, federal funding made up 40% of overall revenue in nearly half of US states. Federal funding accounted for the greatest share of state revenue in Louisiana (50.5%), Alaska (50.2%), and Arizona (49.7%). By contrast, it accounted for just 22.2% of ND state revenue, 25.9% in HI, and 27.6% in VA. With Republicans looking to cut federal spending, some states will be more vulnerable than others. It is believed that President Trump will cut federal funding to California. California, by the way, not only accounts for 20 percent of the nation’s mortgage activity, but overtook Japan to become the 4th largest economy in the world. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are presented by Flyhomes, the leading wholesale lender for Buy Before You Sell solutions. Whether your borrowers run into DTI issues, need to unlock home equity for down payment, make a stronger, cash-like offer, or even move potentially with no cash out of pocket, Flyhomes provides a full suite of financial products to help them move forward, before selling their current home. Hear an interview with Cardinal Financial’s Brian Hurd on how manufactured housing, lender-builder innovation, and shifting policy and market dynamics are reshaping the path to attainable homeownership amid today’s affordability crisis.)

Purchase Demand Near 2 Year Highs; Refis Bounce Back

After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Both purchase and refinance demand climbed to their highest levels in over a month, with the composite index rising 12.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.” Refinance applications jumped 16% on the week and are now 28% higher than the same week last year. Purchase apps rose 10% week-over-week and are now running 20% above 2024 levels, marking a continuation of the strong year-over-year gains seen in recent reports. There are only 2 other weeks with higher purchase index readings going back to May 2023, and they were only barely higher. It should be noted that refi index, while not officially seasonally adjusted  does include a smoothing adjustment for holiday weeks.  Last week’s data noted a Memorial Day adjustment, one that is not present in the current week’s data.  Because certain holidays fall on a different day of the week, adjusting for them is an imperfect science. In all likelihood, if we could completely remove seasonality and holiday effects, last week’s refi index would have been stronger and the present week would have shown a much smaller increase.